By Ann Saphir
Nov 28 (Reuters) - The labels “dove” and “hawk” have
long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary
policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on
risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat
of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus
pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal
Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to
provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then,
when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed
aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement
on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also
stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more
evident, and the choices more varied: to raise rates again, skip
for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended
pause.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary
policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held
eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given
meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others
who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently
stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance
their goals of stable prices and full employment. The
designations are based on comments and published remarks; for
more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations,
click on the photos in the graphic.
Over time Reuters has shifted policymaker designations based
on fresh comments and developing circumstances - for an
accounting of how our counts have changed please scroll to the
bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Patrick John Jerome Michelle
Harker, Williams, New Powell, Bowman,
Philadelph York Fed Fed Governor,
ia Fed President, Chair, permanent
President, permanent permanent voter:
2023 voter: "Right voter: "My
voter: “A now we need "If it baseline
decrease to keep this becomes economic
in the restrictive appropria outlook
policy stance of te to continues
rate is policy in tighten to expect
not place for policy that we
something some time." further, will need
that is Oct. 18, 2023 we will to
likely to not increase
happen in hesitate the
the short to do federal
term.” so." Nov. funds rate
Nov. 8, 9, 2023 further."
2023 Nov. 28,
2023
Raphael Philip Christoph Loretta
Bostic, Jefferson, er Mester,
Atlanta Vice Chair: Waller, Cleveland
Fed "We are in a Governor, Fed
President, sensitive permanent President,
2024 period of voter: "I 2024
voter: "I risk am voter:
think management, increasin “We’re
where we where we have gly going to
are now to balance confident have to
will be the risk of that see much
sufficient not having policy is more
ly tightened currently evidence
restrictiv enough, well that
e to get against the positione inflation
us to the risk of d to slow is on that
2% level policy being the timely
for too economy path back
inflation. restrictive.” and get to 2%.”
" Nov. 3, Oct. 9, 2023 inflation Nov. 16,
2023 back to 2023
2%." Nov.
28, 2023
Michael Barr, Neel
Vice Chair of Kashkari,
Supervision, Minneapol
permanent is Fed
voter: The President
Fed is “at or , 2023
near the voter:
peak” of “When
interest activity
rates.” Nov. continues
17, 2023 to run
this hot,
that
makes me
question
if policy
is as
tight as
we assume
it
currently
is.” Nov.
7, 2023
Lisa Cook, Lorie
Governor, Logan,
permanent Dallas
voter: "I Fed
see risks as President
two-sided, , 2023
requiring us voter:
to balance “We have
the risk of seen some
not retraceme
tightening nt in
enough that
against the 10-year
risk of yield and
tightening financial
too much." condition
Nov. 16, 2023 s, and so
I'll be
watching
to see
whether
that
continues
and what
that
means for
the
implicati
ons of
policy,"
Nov. 7,
2023
Austan Goolsb Thomas
ee, Chicago Barkin,
Fed Richmond
President, Fed
2023 voter: President
"If we hit , 2024
the targets voter:
that we "Whether
expect to a
hit, then we slowdown
would be on that
path to get settles
to 2%, and inflation
that's what I requires
call the more from
golden path." us
Nov. 17, 2023 remains
to be
seen.”
Nov. 9,
2023
Mary Daly,
San Francisco
Fed
President,
2024 voter:
“We can take
our time to
do it right."
Nov. 17, 2023
Susan
Collins,
Boston Fed
President,
2025 voter:
The Fed
should be
"patient and
resolute, and
I wouldn't
take
additional
firming off
the table."
Nov. 17, 2023
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March
2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate
hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.
Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate
hike by year’s end, but recently many have expressed more
confidence that none will be needed. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas
City Fed's president since August and a voter in 2025, nor
Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed
Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy
remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed its
president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new
chief will be a 2025 voter.
Below is a Reuters' count of policymakers in each category,
heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centris Hawkish Hawk
t
Oct/Nov '23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept '23 0 4 3 6 3
June '23 0 3 3 8 3
March '23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec '22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)Fed hawks, Fed doves: What U.S. central bankers are saying
November 29, 2023 at 02:14 am IST
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