Projected Income Statement: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -14,303 -17,580 -19,232 -17,937 -12,823 -13,857 -15,437 -15,361
Change - -22.91% -9.4% 6.73% 28.51% -8.06% -11.4% 0.49%
Announcement Date 28/03/22 22/03/23 26/03/24 30/03/25 26/03/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,602 1,738 895.4 1,941 2,105 1,413 1,464 1,407
Change - 8.49% -48.48% 116.82% 8.46% -32.9% 3.61% -3.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 4,441 3,141 1,882 3,213 2,487 4,252 4,488 4,721
Change - -29.28% -40.07% 70.72% -22.6% 70.95% 5.55% 5.2%
Announcement Date 28/03/22 22/03/23 26/03/24 30/03/25 26/03/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.39% 18.89% 20.23% 21.85% 22.99% 21.3% 21.61% 22.02%
EBIT Margin (%) 14.77% 15.54% 16.9% 18.18% 19.15% 18.05% 18.53% 18.97%
EBT Margin (%) 14.85% 15.56% 16.93% 18.3% 19.37% 19.68% 20.14% 20.51%
Net margin (%) 10.46% 11.53% 12.58% 13.52% 14.13% 14.45% 14.83% 15.15%
FCF margin (%) 14.72% 9.76% 5.55% 10% 7.66% 12.84% 13.21% 13.53%
FCF / Net Income (%) 140.75% 84.64% 44.1% 73.96% 54.21% 88.8% 89.11% 89.27%

Profitability

        
ROA 7.17% 7.66% 8.57% 8.63% 8.86% 8.82% 8.88% 8.9%
ROE 14.47% 15.3% 16.12% 15.38% 15.5% 14.86% 14.86% 14.86%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.31% 5.4% 2.64% 6.04% 6.48% 4.27% 4.31% 4.03%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 28.88% 28.59% 13.04% 27.64% 28.21% 20.02% 19.94% 18.3%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 36.07% 55.34% 47.57% 60.41% 84.66% 33.23% 32.62% 29.79%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 3.26 3.576 2.036 3.778 3.366 4.328 4.71 4.85
Change - 9.7% -43.07% 85.58% -10.9% 28.55% 8.82% 2.98%
Dividend per Share 1 1.1 1.8 2 2.2 2.35 2.445 2.627 2.693
Change - 63.64% 11.11% 10% 6.82% 4.03% 7.47% 2.49%
Book Value Per Share 1 16.86 18.69 20.12 21.3 22.47 23.62 25.46 26.14
Change - 10.84% 7.67% 5.87% 5.47% 5.12% 7.8% 2.68%
EPS 1 2.324 2.728 3.132 3.187 3.363 3.509 3.717 3.846
Change - 17.38% 14.81% 1.76% 5.52% 4.33% 5.94% 3.46%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,64,355 13,64,233 13,64,197 13,64,197 13,64,195 13,64,195 13,64,195 13,64,195
Announcement Date 28/03/22 22/03/23 26/03/24 30/03/25 26/03/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 15.3x 14.4x
PBR 2.27x 2.11x
EV / Sales 1.48x 1.4x
Yield 4.56% 4.9%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
21
Last Close Price
53.66CNY
Average target price
72.16CNY
Spread / Average Target
+34.48%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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