Projected Income Statement: Trainline plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Trainline plc

Fiscal Period: February 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 90.3 100 63.9 83.4 202 188 96.1 -13.1
Change - 10.74% -36.1% 30.52% 142.21% -7.04% -48.88% -113.63%
Announcement Date 05/05/22 04/05/23 03/05/24 07/05/25 06/05/26 - - -
1GBP in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Trainline plc

Fiscal Period: February 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 29.34 35.22 37.03 40.87 36.63 42.89 44.51 44.28
Change - 20.02% 5.14% 10.37% -10.38% 17.1% 3.77% -0.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 165.8 7.796 84.7 97.33 96.39 96.9 125.8 122.4
Change - -95.3% 986.44% 14.91% -0.96% 0.52% 29.87% -2.74%
Announcement Date 05/05/22 04/05/23 03/05/24 07/05/25 06/05/26 - - -
1GBP in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Trainline plc

Fiscal Period: February 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.71% 26.32% 30.79% 36% 39.02% 40.85% 40.16% 39.4%
EBIT Margin (%) -1.87% 13.73% 20.28% 26.23% 30.01% 30.44% 29.96% 29.96%
EBT Margin (%) -8.24% 6.75% 12.13% 18.3% 25.25% 24.29% 23.52% 24.2%
Net margin (%) -6.32% 6.49% 8.57% 13.2% 17.63% 16.96% 17.26% 17.29%
FCF margin (%) 87.96% 2.38% 21.35% 22.01% 21.29% 21.62% 26.96% 25.04%
FCF / Net Income (%) -1,392.89% 36.74% 249.22% 166.8% 120.77% 127.48% 156.21% 144.83%

Profitability

        
ROA -1.93% 3.27% - 12.72% 14.25% 10.87% 11.71% 11.93%
ROE -4.38% 7.71% 20.02% 28.69% 39.78% 49.24% 38.08% 36.22%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.31x 1.17x 0.52x 0.52x 1.14x 1.03x 0.51x -
Debt / Free cash flow 0.54x 12.88x 0.75x 0.86x 2.1x 1.94x 0.76x -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 15.57% 10.77% 9.33% 9.24% 8.09% 9.57% 9.54% 9.06%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 75.15% 40.91% 30.32% 25.68% 20.73% 23.43% 23.75% 23%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 17.7% 451.76% 43.72% 41.99% 38% 44.26% 35.37% 36.18%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.4087 0.0909 0.254 0.2999 0.3188 0.3943 0.451 0.4424
Change - -77.76% 179.43% 18.07% 6.3% 23.69% 14.37% -1.89%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 0.5434 0.6144 0.668 0.6136 0.4898 0.5629 0.7282 0.9028
Change - 13.08% 8.72% -8.14% -20.18% 14.93% 29.35% 23.99%
EPS 1 -0.0249 0.0448 0.0709 0.1266 0.1913 0.2126 0.2342 0.2367
Change - 279.92% 58.26% 78.56% 51.11% 11.11% 10.2% 1.04%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 4,78,581 4,68,581 4,60,309 4,31,795 3,79,260 3,47,993 3,47,993 3,47,993
Announcement Date 05/05/22 04/05/23 03/05/24 07/05/25 06/05/26 - - -
1GBP
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 10.5x 9.55x
PBR 3.98x 3.07x
EV / Sales 2.16x 1.87x
Yield - -

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AAA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
12
Last Close Price
2.238GBP
Average target price
3.612GBP
Spread / Average Target
+61.38%

Annual profits - Rate of surprise

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  4. Financials Trainline plc