Financials The Progressive Corporation Sao Paulo

Equities

P1GR34

BRP1GRBDR007

Property & Casualty Insurance

Market Closed - Sao Paulo Other stock markets 01:00:07 14/06/2025 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
741.48 ^BRL	-0.42%		-4.74%	+0.13%

13/06	DIARY-U.S. earnings week ahead	RE
30/05	Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Progressive to $307 From $311	MT

Projected Income Statement: The Progressive Corporation

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	40,569	46,405	51,081	61,550	74,424	86,073	95,337	1,01,574
Change	-	14.39%	10.08%	20.5%	20.92%	15.65%	10.76%	6.54%
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	5,472	-	14,256	15,502	17,180
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	8.74%	10.83%
EBIT ¹	7,390	4,429	1,166	5,172	10,992	13,320	14,440	15,954
Change	-	-40.07%	-73.68%	343.73%	112.52%	21.18%	8.41%	10.48%
Interest Paid ¹	-217	-218.6	-243.5	-268.4	-279	-280.1	-287.7	-289
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	7,173	4,210	922.1	4,904	10,713	11,730	11,783	12,876
Change	-	-41.31%	-78.1%	431.8%	118.47%	9.49%	0.45%	9.28%
Net income ¹	5,705	3,351	721.5	3,902	8,480	9,313	9,333	10,055
Change	-	-41.26%	-78.47%	440.87%	117.3%	9.83%	0.21%	7.75%
Announcement Date	27/01/21	26/01/22	25/01/23	24/01/24	29/01/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2	2026 Q3	2026 Q4	2027 Q1
Net sales ¹	10,140	11,015	9,542	11,729	11,480	12,446	10,749	13,181	12,422	13,018	12,460	16,110	14,717	15,594	15,130	18,962	17,902	19,456	18,105	22,206	20,533	22,234	20,911	24,669	23,270	25,054	23,723	-
Change	-	8.63%	-13.37%	22.92%	-2.12%	8.42%	-13.64%	22.62%	-5.76%	4.8%	-4.28%	29.29%	-8.65%	5.96%	-2.98%	25.33%	-5.59%	8.68%	-6.94%	22.65%	-7.53%	8.28%	-5.95%	17.97%	-5.67%	7.67%	-5.31%	-
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2,573	-	-	3,015	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-56.4	-56.4	-56.2	-56.4	-56.4	-54.2	-51.6	-54.3	-63	-63.1	-63.1	-63.3	-65.7	-69.7	-69.7	-69.6	-69.6	-69.9	-69.9	-70	-69.44	-70	-70.69	-72	-72.3	-72.6	-72.9	-69
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	2,269	1,924	2,106	1,868	999.2	139	1,204	390.2	-635.9	142.5	1,025	554.4	435.7	1,410	2,503	2,940	1,860	2,945	2,968	3,236	2,800	2,471	2,977	3,100	2,744	2,569	2,993	3,627
Change	-	-15.22%	9.5%	-11.31%	-46.51%	-86.09%	766.12%	-67.59%	-262.97%	122.41%	619.51%	-45.93%	-21.41%	223.66%	77.52%	17.44%	-36.72%	58.29%	0.78%	9.03%	-13.47%	-11.76%	20.49%	4.14%	-11.5%	-6.39%	16.53%	21.17%
Net income ¹	1,790	1,531	1,684	1,480	790.1	118.5	962.3	313.9	-542.9	124.1	826.4	447.9	345.4	1,121	1,988	2,331	1,459	2,333	2,356	2,567	2,306	2,051	2,386	2,475	2,150	2,011	2,335	2,865
Change	-	-14.5%	10.03%	-12.13%	-46.61%	-85%	712.07%	-67.38%	-272.95%	122.86%	565.91%	-45.8%	-22.88%	224.64%	77.28%	17.29%	-37.43%	59.96%	0.97%	8.96%	-10.18%	-11.05%	16.35%	3.7%	-13.13%	-6.46%	16.11%	22.71%
Announcement Date	15/07/20	14/10/20	27/01/21	15/04/21	15/07/21	14/10/21	26/01/22	14/04/22	15/07/22	13/10/22	25/01/23	13/04/23	13/07/23	13/10/23	24/01/24	12/04/24	16/07/24	15/10/24	29/01/25	16/04/25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: The Progressive Corporation

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	-	-	3,323	6,804	-	-22,956	-11,632	878
Change	-	-	-	104.75%	-	-	49.33%	107.55%
Announcement Date	27/01/21	26/01/22	25/01/23	24/01/24	29/01/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: The Progressive Corporation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
CAPEX ¹	363.5	223.5	243.5	292	252	285
Change	-	-38.51%	8.95%	19.92%	-13.7%	13.1%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	-2,927	-5,334	11,285	3,203	11,529	17,324
Change	-	-82.2%	311.59%	-71.62%	259.95%	50.26%
Announcement Date	02/03/20	01/03/21	28/02/22	27/02/23	26/02/24	03/03/25

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: The Progressive Corporation

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	-	-	-	8.89%	-	16.56%	16.26%	16.91%
EBIT Margin (%)	18.22%	9.54%	2.28%	8.4%	14.77%	15.48%	15.15%	15.71%
EBT Margin (%)	17.68%	9.07%	1.81%	7.97%	14.39%	13.63%	12.36%	12.68%
Net margin (%)	14.06%	7.22%	1.41%	6.34%	11.39%	10.82%	9.79%	9.9%
FCF margin (%)	-	-	12.84%	16.88%	-	-	-	-
FCF / Net Income (%)	-	-	908.77%	266.28%	-	-	-	-
Profitability
ROA	7.41%	4.96%	0.98%	4.75%	8.72%	7.9%	7.2%	7.1%
ROE	28.71%	12.19%	13%	21.58%	36.98%	31.7%	25.37%	24.26%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	1.24x	-	-	-	0.05x
Debt / Free cash flow	-	-	0.51x	0.65x	-	-	-	-
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	8.92%	0.52%	0.57%	0.41%	-	-	-	-
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	-	-	-	4.61%	-	-	-	-
CAPEX / FCF (%)	-	-	4.45%	2.43%	-	-	-	-
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	11.75	-	11.67	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share ¹	4.9	1.9	0.4	1.15	4.9	4.252	5.335	4.664
Change	-	-61.22%	-78.95%	187.5%	326.09%	-13.21%	25.46%	-12.58%
Book Value Per Share ¹	28.27	30.35	26.32	33.8	43.67	58.59	71.51	81.86
Change	-	7.36%	-13.28%	28.42%	29.2%	34.16%	22.05%	14.47%
EPS ¹	9.66	5.66	1.18	6.58	14.4	15.75	15.65	16.5
Change	-	-41.41%	-79.15%	457.63%	118.84%	9.4%	-0.69%	5.45%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	5,85,300	5,85,064	5,85,070	5,84,961	5,85,812	5,86,224	5,86,224	5,86,224
Announcement Date	27/01/21	26/01/22	25/01/23	24/01/24	29/01/25	-	-	-