Indeed, its valuation has eroded continuously over the past seven years, so that its market capitalization is now back to the same level as ten years ago.
It's true that, converted into US dollars and over the 2014-2024 period, sales - after a brief period of expansion - have fallen from $7.4bn to $6.3bn... and this, despite spending $1.4bn on acquisitions.
Operating profit collapsed, from $482m to $46m between the beginning and end of the ten-year cycle; while cash generation was negative in 2024, for the third time in ten years - for the second time if we exclude the pandemic episode.
Shiseido, like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder, is gradually being pushed out of the Chinese market by more affordable local competition of excellent quality. This is a blow to the Japanese group's wallet, since it generates over a quarter of its sales in this country.
In this respect, the dynamics in the cosmetics sector are similar to those observed everywhere else - for example, in the automotive or textile sectors, as witnessed by the latest results from BMW or Nike. No doubt it should serve as a warning to those sectors still untouched by what looks like a genuine great replacement.
In any case, it has not escaped the notice of Shiseido's major institutional shareholders. Several of them - including Norges, Nomura, Baillie Gifford and BlackRock - have significantly reduced their shareholdings in recent months.
While the sharp contraction in the valuation of a comparable company like Estée Lauder is more the result of a return to the mean - MarketScreener, it will be recalled, has long been astonished at the unreasonably lenient preferential treatment meted out by the market - Shiseido's valuation is the result of a clear deterioration in its fundamentals.
It also sends a very clear signal to Western groups whose business remains highly exposed to China.
