Oddo BHF is maintaining its "Outperform" rating on Renault shares with a target price lowered from €60 to €55.
The analyst reports that the car maker has published preliminary interim results that are below expectations, with an operating margin of 6.0% compared with 6.8% anticipated and free cash flow of only €47m, a fraction of the €405m expected.
Following this warning and the revision of annual targets (MOP now expected at ~6.5% and FCF between €1.0bn and €1.5bn), the broker has lowered its own EBIT estimates by 10%.
Analysts say that while the timing of this warning, one month after the announcement of the CEO's departure, is considered "unfortunate, to say the least," there is no direct link between the two events. Nevertheless, this is likely to fuel market doubts about the short-term outlook, and a negative stockmarket reaction is anticipated.
Finally, the note says that despite these factors, Oddo BHF remains confident of a sequential improvement in the second half of the year thanks to planned launches, a rebound in orders in the utilities sector and additional cost-cutting measures.
The broker also believes that the rapid appointment of a new CEO and the expected presentation of the Futurama plan at the end of the year will be important catalysts.
Renault is one of the world's leading automobile constructors. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- sale of vehicles (88.9%): 2,336,807 passenger and commercial vehicles sold in 2025, distributed by brand between Renault (1,628,030), Dacia (697,408), Alpine (10,970), Renault Korea Motors (399) and other (2,431);
- services (10.2%): financing services for vehicle sales (purchasing, renting, leasing, etc.; RCI Banque), related services (maintenance, warranty extension, assistance, etc.) and mobility services.
At the end of 2025, the group had 25 industrial sites worldwide.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (28.5%), Europe (50.6%), Americas (8.2%), Eurasia (5%), Asia-Pacific (4.3%), Africa and Middle East (3.4%).
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