Company Valuation: Qudian Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Capitalization 1 9,614 8,312 2,286 1,558 1,660 3,253
Change - -13.54% -72.5% -31.84% 6.51% 96.04%
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 11,387 8,884 -3,265 -5,391 -7,053 -6,081
Change - -21.98% -136.76% 65.09% 30.83% -13.78%
P/E ratio 3.81x 3x 2.51x 2.71x -4.47x 82.1x
PBR 0.81x 0.7x 0.19x 0.12x 0.13x 0.25x
PEG - 0.1x -0x -0.1x 0x -1x
Capitalization / Revenue 1.25x 0.95x 0.63x 0.98x 3.17x 25.8x
EV / Revenue 1.49x 1.01x -0.9x -3.4x -13.5x -48.1x
EV / EBITDA 4.04x 1.77x -4.14x -6x 45x 21.6x
EV / EBIT 4.06x 1.78x -4.2x -6.14x 42.9x 20.6x
EV / FCF 5.01x 3.33x -0.47x -5.29x -3.84x -6.69x
FCF Yield 20% 30% -214% -18.9% -26.1% -15%
Dividend per Share 2 - - - - - -
Rate of return - - - - - -
EPS 2 7.74 10.94 3.59 2.27 -1.471 0.1761
Distribution rate - - - - - -
Net sales 1 7,664 8,796 3,616 1,587 524 126.3
EBITDA 1 2,818 5,014 788.1 899.1 -156.6 -281.9
EBIT 1 2,806 4,992 777.7 877.5 -164.6 -295.8
Net income 1 2,491 3,264 958.8 589.1 -362 39.13
Net Debt 1 1,773 571.8 -5,551 -6,949 -8,713 -9,335
Reference price 2 29.51 32.80 9.01 6.16 6.57 14.47
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 3,25,838 2,53,458 2,53,729 2,53,088 2,52,475 2,24,899
Announcement Date 15/04/19 27/04/20 29/04/21 29/04/22 28/04/23 29/04/24
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

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P/E ratio EV / Sales EV / EBITDA Yield (Y) Capi. ($)
53.37x9.9x24.06x+0.63%18TCr
23.86x5.38x13.21x+1.72%4.59TCr
45.77x17.06x35.38x-.--%4.52TCr
11x4.64x6.23x+6.05%2.36TCr
30.8x14.7x35.01x-.--%1.95TCr
-55.3x6.19x-322.07x-.--%1.37TCr
196.54x17.84x282.82x+0.02%980.67Cr
12.51x0.17x0.36x-.--%794.16Cr
39.07x12.78x32.5x+1.69%746.49Cr
Average 39.74x 9.85x 11.94x +1.12% 3.96TCr
Weighted average by Cap. 43.13x 10.06x 17.00x +0.98%
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Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Historical PBR trend

Evolution Enterprise Value / Sales

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

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