Company Valuation: Origin Energy Limited

Data adjusted to current consolidation scope
Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Market Cap 1 7,942 9,869 14,477 18,707 18,511 18,075 - -
Change - 24.26% 46.69% 29.22% -1.05% -2.36% - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 12,581 12,707 17,354 21,540 23,165 23,200 23,618 23,469
Change - 1% 36.57% 24.13% 7.54% 0.15% 1.8% -0.63%
P/E -3.46x -7.03x 13.7x 13.4x 12.6x 16.4x 14.8x 15.4x
PBR 0.81x 0.98x 1.63x 1.98x 1.87x 1.84x 1.81x 1.81x
PEG - 0.2x -0x 0.4x 2x -0.6x 1.4x -3.92x
Capitalization / Revenue 0.66x 0.68x 0.88x 1.16x 1.07x 1.12x 1.12x 1.12x
EV / Revenue 1.04x 0.88x 1.05x 1.33x 1.34x 1.44x 1.47x 1.46x
EV / EBITDA 6.14x 6.01x 5.59x 6.11x 6.79x 7.45x 7.2x 7.2x
EV / EBIT 23.3x 24.1x 12.2x 11.1x 12.2x 14.5x 14.9x 14.9x
EV / FCF 15x 34.4x -13.2x 16.6x 19.2x 16.6x 17.6x 17.8x
FCF Yield 6.68% 2.9% -7.57% 6.02% 5.21% 6.04% 5.68% 5.62%
Dividend per Share 2 0.2 0.29 0.365 0.55 0.6 0.6014 0.6337 0.6198
Rate of return 4.43% 5.06% 4.34% 5.06% 5.56% 5.73% 6.04% 5.9%
EPS 2 -1.302 -0.815 0.613 0.808 0.859 0.6419 0.7092 0.6814
Distribution rate -15.4% -35.6% 59.5% 68.1% 69.8% 93.7% 89.3% 91%
Net sales 1 12,097 14,461 16,481 16,138 17,224 16,089 16,105 16,113
EBITDA 1 2,048 2,114 3,107 3,528 3,411 3,112 3,281 3,260
EBIT 1 540 527 1,417 1,941 1,895 1,598 1,581 1,577
Net income 1 -2,291 -1,429 1,055 1,397 1,481 1,162 1,172 1,179
Net Debt 1 4,639 2,838 2,877 2,833 4,654 5,125 5,543 5,394
Reference price 2 4.51 5.73 8.41 10.86 10.79 10.50 10.50 10.50
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 17,60,921 17,22,303 17,21,367 17,22,603 17,15,566 17,21,407 - -
Announcement Date 18/08/21 17/08/22 16/08/23 14/08/24 13/08/25 - - -
1AUD in Million2AUD
Estimates

P/E, Detailed evolution

P/E (Y) EV / Sales (Y) EV / EBITDA (Y) Dividend Yield (Y) Capi.($)
16.31x1.44x7.44x5.74% 1.26TCr
34.79x6.12x44.76x0.19% 29TCr
22.37x9.34x15.44x2.76% 19TCr
21.07x4.28x11.6x3.42% 16TCr
14.24x2.01x7.05x5.01% 12TCr
21.58x5.99x13.24x3.16% 11TCr
18.71x5.67x11.31x3.47% 9.85TCr
20.94x3.2x12.57x0.66% 9.16TCr
21.14x5.33x12.81x2.86% 7.34TCr
19.81x6.47x13.85x3.74% 6.27TCr
Average 21.09x 4.99x 15.01x 3.1% 11.96TCr
Weighted average by Cap. 23.61x 5.62x 20.04x 2.48%

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Historical PBR trend

Evolution Enterprise Value / Sales

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

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