On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on Nestlé shares from 'underweight' to 'weight in line', with a price target reduced from 80 to 76 Swiss francs.
Following the stock's recent significant underperformance, the analyst believes that his negative investment thesis on the food giant has now materialized.
While he regrets that the company's last Investor Day did not provide sufficient opportunity to review the strategic mistakes made, the intermediary acknowledges that Nestlé has admitted to losing market share.
And while it considers the company's pipeline of new products to be "impressive", Morgan Stanley believes that the targets for 2025 and 2026 still present risks, and does not see the company achieving its medium-term objectives before 2027.
The professional believes, however, that these factors are now more than factored into the share price, with a valuation that reflects the market's increased caution about the company's prospects.
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Nestlé S.A. is the world's leading agri-food group. Net sales break down by category of products as follows:
- powdered and liquid beverages (26.9%): soluble coffees (Nescafé and Starbucks brands), coffee in capsules (Nespresso), chocolate drinks (Nesquik, Milo, etc.), tea drinks (Nestea), etc.;
- pet food (20.7%): brands such as Purina, Friskies, Felix, etc.;
- pharmaceutical, nutrition and well-being products (16.6%): nutritional supplements (Resource, Boost, Nutren, Optifast, Peptamen brands, etc.), infant and maternal nutrition products (NAN, illuma, Cerelac, Nido, Gerber), ketogenic beverages (BrainXpert), (Nesquick, Fitness, Cheerios, Lion, etc.), etc.;
- ready meals and seasoning products (11.7%): frozen and chilled dishes (Lean Cuisine, Hot Pockets and Stouffer's brands), soups (Maggi), etc.;
- dairy products and ice cream (11.4%): powdered milk, sweetened condensed milk, yoghurt and cream desserts, ice cream (Nido, Nesvita, Carnation, La Laitière, Coffee Mate, Nestlé Ice Cream, Dreyers, Häagen-Dazs, Extrême brands, etc.);
- chocolates, sweets and biscuits (9.2%): Kit Kat, Smarties, Cailler, Terrafertil, etc. brands;
- bottled waters (3.5%): Nestlé Pure Life, Vittel, Perrier, S. Pellegrino, etc. brands.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Switzerland (1.2%), the United Kingdom (4%), France (3.8%), Germany (2.2%), Europe (13.1%), the United States and Canada (35.2%), China (5.9%), Brazil (4.4%), Mexico (4.2%), Chile (1.2%), Latin America (3.8%), Philippines (2.9%), India (2.2%), Australia (1.6%) and Oceania (14.3%).
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