In the second quarter, the group's growth is expected to exceed 8%, driven by strong performance in the United States (+12%) and Japan (+14%), according to the research firm. However, the two-year base effect is fading, and momentum in Asia remains moderate (+4%), in line with weaker Chinese demand. Above all, growth is increasingly reliant on leather goods, to the detriment of a more balanced distribution across categories. Jefferies forecasts a slight decline in gross margin in the first half, but operating profit above consensus thanks to good cost control.

So far, so classic: Hermès is suffering like other luxury players in absolute terms, but in relative terms, the balance sheet remains very favorable.

PER of 50 times

However, the appreciation of the dollar and rising costs continue to weigh on the outlook, prompting Jefferies to revise its estimates downward for 2026, now 3% below consensus. This does not include Donald Trump's little bonus gift at this stage, the 30% surtaxes that could hit the EU from August 1.

With the stock already having reached its target price of EUR 2,460 (corresponding to a P/E ratio of 50 times 2026), the analyst believes that a return to valuation highs (60 times) remains unlikely in the short term.

A resurgence of growth in segments other than leather goods could boost the stock's appeal, but for now, Jefferies believes that its relative valuation remains "reasonable" compared to the sector, and that other luxury players such as Ferrari and Brunello Cucinelli could post more attractive growth and margins in the coming months. As for its relative valuation compared to the Stoxx Europe 600, it stands at 240% (i.e., Hermès is trading at 3.4 times the average P/E ratio of the SXXP), which Jefferies considers adequate.

P/E ratios as of July 14 for a few luxury stocks based on expected 2026 results (S&P Capital IQ/MarketScreener consensus):