Financials Global Power Synergy

Equities

GPSC

TH6488010005

Independent Power Producers

End-of-day quote Thailand S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 26/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
47.75 ^THB	-2.05%		+3.24%	-1.55%

03/04	Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited Announces Board Changes	CI
03/04	Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited Approves Board Changes	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	2,41,792	2,07,955	2,50,251	2,05,840	1,36,757	1,34,642	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	3,28,076	2,92,561	3,46,090	3,19,725	1,36,757	2,43,233	2,45,858	2,29,338
P/E ratio	38.1 x	27.7 x	34.1 x	228 x	37 x	24.5 x	20.6 x	18.5 x
Yield	1.52%	2.03%	1.69%	-	-	2.3%	2.85%	3.04%
Capitalization / Revenue	3.63 x	2.99 x	3.34 x	1.66 x	-	1.42 x	1.49 x	1.58 x
EV / Revenue	4.93 x	4.2 x	4.62 x	2.58 x	-	2.57 x	2.73 x	2.7 x
EV / EBITDA	20 x	14.7 x	19.9 x	31.5 x	8.22 x	12.9 x	12.1 x	11.7 x
EV / FCF	23 x	19 x	29.5 x	-170 x	-	19.1 x	15.2 x	12.8 x
FCF Yield	4.35%	5.27%	3.39%	-0.59%	-	5.24%	6.56%	7.83%
Price to Book	2.4 x	2.02 x	2.31 x	1.96 x	-	1.23 x	1.2 x	1.17 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	28,19,729	28,19,729	28,19,729	28,19,729	28,19,729	28,19,729	-	-
Reference price ²	85.75	73.75	88.75	73.00	48.50	47.75	47.75	47.75
Announcement Date	12/02/20	11/02/21	11/02/22	10/02/23	09/02/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	66,562	69,578	74,874	1,23,685	-	94,618	90,200	85,086
EBITDA ¹	16,443	19,885	17,407	10,164	16,645	18,832	20,303	19,598
EBIT ¹	9,315	11,178	8,175	1,051	7,336	8,739	9,743	10,225
Operating Margin	14%	16.07%	10.92%	0.85%	-	9.24%	10.8%	12.02%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	5,411	8,559	7,496	1,081	5,316	6,029	7,301	7,539
Net income ¹	4,061	7,508	7,319	891.4	3,694	5,349	6,832	7,171
Net margin	6.1%	10.79%	9.77%	0.72%	-	5.65%	7.57%	8.43%
EPS ²	2.250	2.660	2.600	0.3200	1.310	1.952	2.323	2.580
Free Cash Flow ¹	14,281	15,417	11,737	-1,879	-	12,747	16,130	17,948
FCF margin	21.45%	22.16%	15.68%	-1.52%	-	13.47%	17.88%	21.09%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	86.85%	77.53%	67.43%	-	-	67.69%	79.45%	91.58%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	351.67%	205.34%	160.37%	-	-	238.31%	236.09%	250.28%
Dividend per Share ²	1.300	1.500	1.500	-	-	1.100	1.362	1.454
Announcement Date	12/02/20	11/02/21	11/02/22	10/02/23	09/02/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	36,446	34,858	17,996	22,019	27,261	27,719	33,866	34,839	27,905	23,035	21,044	-	22,210	25,238	27,257	26,248	21,047
EBITDA	10,169	10,234	-	2,574	2,517	4,239	2,688	1,634	4,369	3,478	5,487	3,310	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	5,997	5,643	3,230	262.6	281	1,946	397.9	-658.9	2,163	1,121	3,101	969.2	2,176	2,473	2,936	2,307	2,306
Operating Margin	16.45%	16.19%	17.95%	1.19%	1.03%	7.02%	1.17%	-1.89%	7.75%	4.87%	14.73%	-	9.8%	9.8%	10.77%	8.79%	10.96%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	4,483	5,226	-	-81,520	343.6	-	242.5	-365.8	1,424	283.7	2,607	1,001	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	3,476	4,276	1,875	1,168	313.2	683.8	330.9	-436.4	1,118	309.3	1,790	477.8	947	1,216	-	-	-
Net margin	9.54%	12.27%	10.42%	5.31%	1.15%	2.47%	0.98%	-1.25%	4.01%	1.34%	8.5%	-	4.26%	4.82%	-	-	-
EPS ²	1.230	1.520	0.6600	0.4200	0.1100	0.2400	0.1200	-0.1500	-	0.1100	0.6300	0.1700	0.3448	0.5468	0.7108	0.4557	0.3861
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	1.000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.029	-
Announcement Date	06/08/20	06/08/21	05/11/21	11/02/22	06/05/22	08/08/22	09/11/22	10/02/23	08/05/23	09/08/23	06/11/23	09/02/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	86,284	84,606	95,839	1,13,885	-	1,08,591	1,11,216	94,696
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.248 x	4.255 x	5.506 x	11.21 x	-	5.766 x	5.478 x	4.832 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	14,281	15,417	11,737	-1,879	-	12,747	16,130	17,948
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	5.76%	7.37%	6.93%	0.84%	-	5.18%	6.12%	6.49%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.57%	2.95%	2.78%	0.32%	-	2.14%	2.55%	2.74%
Assets ¹	1,58,228	2,54,340	2,63,514	2,79,802	-	2,49,557	2,68,445	2,61,738
Book Value Per Share ²	35.80	36.50	38.40	37.20	-	38.70	39.90	41.00
Cash Flow per Share ²	9.630	7.390	5.710	1.220	-	4.230	6.280	7.300
Capex ¹	3,073	5,440	4,372	5,317	-	8,100	14,401	6,892
Capex / Sales	4.62%	7.82%	5.84%	4.3%	-	8.56%	15.97%	8.1%
Announcement Date	12/02/20	11/02/21	11/02/22	10/02/23	09/02/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Global Power Synergy

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

47.75 THB

Average target price

57.22 THB

Spread / Average Target

+19.84%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Fossil Fuel IPPs

	1st Jan change	Capi.
GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY	-1.55%	3.64B
HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC.	+18.36%	17.24B
GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT	-10.11%	12.67B
JSW ENERGY LIMITED	+46.81%	12.56B
ZHEJIANG ZHENENG ELECTRIC POWER CO., LTD.	+36.88%	11.68B
SHAANXI ENERGY INVESTMENT CO., LTD.	+20.23%	5.32B
ABOITIZ POWER CORPORATION	-1.85%	4.63B
JIANGSU GUOXIN CORP. LTD.	+26.33%	4.33B
GUANGDONG ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT CO., LTD.	+9.41%	3.5B
BEIJING JINGNENG POWER CO., LTD.	+15.54%	3.16B

Fossil Fuel IPPs