Notwithstanding the recent slings and arrows from some of its shareholders and the minefield of corporate governance, where real Florentine dramas are being played out behind the scenes, Generali has singularly recovered.
"Stability" will be the watchword for results in the first half of 2024. However, there has been a marked expansion in business volume, with insurance policies up 20% on the same period last year; and the life segment, which has always been one of the Group's strong points, is in insolent health.
The growth trajectory is confirmed, and the objective of achieving earnings per share of at least EUR2.5 by 2024 seems more within reach than ever. This means that - all other things being equal - earnings per share will have doubled in eight years, at a much faster pace than that of Axa or Allianz.
Some people even like to think that Generali's profitability could exceed Allianz's this year, something that hasn't happened since the great subprime crisis. Like Axa, the Italian group has significantly improved its profitability over the last three years, so much so that their margins are now on a par with those of the German group.
With the same fixed-cost structure, this improvement is mainly due to substantial price increases in a highly inflationary environment, combined with rising interest rates and financial markets that are still in good health - all of which boost earnings from asset management activities.
It would not be surprising if the upturn were to slow after twenty-five consecutive quarters of insurance rate increases. This is the risk against which rating agencies - Fitch in particular - have been warning investors since the beginning of the year.
Insurers, like reinsurers, operate in a cyclical, purely commodity industry. What's too good to last, of course, can't go on forever. Despite its good performance, this state of affairs explains Generali's single-digit earnings multiple.
In this respect, Axa and Allianz are hardly better off than the Italian. In reality, the major European insurers are still valued by investors in relation to their dividend yield. The attractiveness of this, of course, depends on the interest-rate environment.



















