Company Valuation: Ecopetrol S.A.

Data adjusted to current consolidation scope
Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Capitalization 1 11,06,03,909 9,95,02,401 9,62,13,066 6,88,70,464 7,68,88,219 10,50,53,155 - -
Change - -10.04% -3.31% -28.42% 11.64% 36.63% - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 18,94,87,781 19,80,74,055 18,78,31,550 17,39,29,477 17,35,56,219 20,05,32,465 19,67,06,297 17,67,26,034
Change - 4.53% -5.17% -7.4% -0.21% 15.54% -1.91% -10.16%
P/E ratio 6.63x 3.15x 4.57x 4.61x - 8.57x 8.08x -
PBR 1.54x 1.15x 1.23x 0.82x - 1.23x 1.17x -
PEG - 0x -0.1x -0.2x - - 1.32x -
Capitalization / Revenue 1.21x 0.62x 0.67x 0.52x 0.64x 0.9x 0.93x 0.91x
EV / Revenue 2.07x 1.24x 1.31x 1.3x 1.45x 1.71x 1.73x 1.53x
EV / EBITDA 4.52x 2.63x 3.09x 3.21x 3.72x 4.49x 4.38x 4.16x
EV / EBIT 6.4x 3.28x 4.29x 4.63x 6.51x 7.22x 7.05x 6.62x
EV / FCF 19.6x 12.8x -53.5x 6.94x 14.6x 16.5x 14x -237x
FCF Yield 5.11% 7.83% -1.87% 14.4% 6.86% 6.06% 7.13% -0.42%
Dividend per Share 2 243 487 - - - 130.1 142.2 -
Rate of return 9.03% 20.1% - - - 5.09% 5.57% -
EPS 2 406 768.7 512.2 363.2 - 298.1 316.3 -
Distribution rate 59.9% 63.4% - - - 43.6% 44.9% -
Net sales 1 9,17,44,000 15,94,74,000 14,30,79,000 13,33,28,000 11,96,94,000 11,73,52,422 11,35,47,108 11,57,34,467
EBITDA 1 4,19,67,000 7,52,44,000 6,07,18,000 5,41,43,000 4,66,76,000 4,46,45,729 4,49,17,395 4,24,68,915
EBIT 1 2,95,94,000 6,03,81,000 4,37,46,000 3,75,93,000 2,66,56,000 2,77,60,576 2,79,20,562 2,67,02,688
Net income 1 1,66,95,000 3,34,06,000 1,90,62,000 1,49,35,000 90,29,000 98,97,356 1,07,11,493 1,17,38,496
Net Debt 1 7,88,83,872 9,85,71,654 9,16,18,484 10,50,59,013 9,66,68,000 9,54,79,310 9,16,53,142 7,16,72,879
Reference price 2 2,690.00 2,420.00 2,340.00 1,675.00 1,870.00 2,555.00 2,555.00 2,555.00
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 4,11,16,695 4,11,16,695 4,11,16,695 4,11,16,695 4,11,16,695 4,11,16,695 - -
Announcement Date 01/03/22 28/02/23 29/02/24 04/03/25 05/03/26 - - -
1COP in Million2COP
Estimates

P/E ratio, Detailed evolution

P/E (Y) EV / Sales (Y) EV / EBITDA (Y) Dividend Yield (Y) Capi.($)
8.57x1.71x4.49x5.09% 2.83TCr
9.58x3.01x4.83x4.67% 19TCr
26.69x2.9x7.07x2.79% 15TCr
19.65x4.06x8.81x3.53% 10TCr
13.59x3.39x6.2x3.07% 7.17TCr
28.72x3.12x6.07x1.77% 5.71TCr
17.94x4.61x6.67x2.28% 5.13TCr
22.06x4.13x5.96x4.07% 4.13TCr
13.58x4.54x6.56x1.03% 4.02TCr
64.3x - - 0.45% 3.66TCr
Average 22.47x 3.50x 6.30x 2.88% 7.64TCr
Weighted average by Cap. 20.08x 3.39x 6.35x 3.22%

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Historical PBR trend

Evolution Enterprise Value / Sales

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

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