Company Valuation: China Railway Group Limited

Data adjusted to current consolidation scope
Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Capitalization 1 1,19,432 1,32,027 1,29,563 1,29,985 1,46,872 1,38,753 1,38,753 -
Change - 10.55% -1.87% 0.33% 12.99% -5.53% 0% -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 1,94,718 2,65,041 2,80,201 3,63,798 4,09,704 4,81,840 4,74,890 5,53,633
Change - 36.12% 5.72% 29.83% 12.62% 17.61% -1.44% 16.58%
P/E ratio 5.47x 5.58x 4.64x 4.4x 5.89x 5.73x 5.48x 5.27x
PBR 0.62x 0.52x 0.54x 0.42x 0.45x 0.39x 0.37x 0.35x
PEG - 0.73x 0.3x 0.56x -0.4x -1.33x 1.22x 1.34x
Capitalization / Revenue 0.12x 0.12x 0.11x 0.1x 0.13x 0.12x 0.12x 0.11x
EV / Revenue 0.2x 0.25x 0.24x 0.29x 0.35x 0.42x 0.4x 0.46x
EV / EBITDA 4.18x 5.43x 5.17x 5.99x 6.99x 8.05x 7.74x 8.09x
EV / EBIT 5.43x 7x 6.56x 7.71x 9.5x 13.6x 12.7x 11.4x
EV / FCF -15.8x -5.05x -17.3x -10x -15x -117x 39.4x 46.9x
FCF Yield -6.32% -19.8% -5.78% -9.97% -6.67% -0.85% 2.54% 2.13%
Dividend per Share 2 0.18 0.196 0.2 0.21 0.178 0.1659 0.1883 0.1975
Rate of return 3.42% 3.39% 3.6% 3.7% 2.79% 2.79% 3.17% 3.33%
EPS 2 0.963 1.037 1.198 1.292 1.084 1.037 1.084 1.127
Distribution rate 18.7% 18.9% 16.7% 16.3% 16.4% 16% 17.4% 17.5%
Net sales 1 9,74,732 10,73,272 11,54,349 12,63,412 11,60,311 11,40,628 11,78,341 12,09,957
EBITDA 1 46,625 48,771 54,198 60,731 58,649 59,837 61,319 68,467
EBIT 1 35,849 37,845 42,700 47,171 43,142 35,421 37,413 48,658
Net income 1 25,188 27,618 31,276 33,483 27,887 25,704 26,765 27,641
Net Debt 1 75,286 1,33,014 1,50,639 2,33,813 2,62,832 3,43,087 3,36,137 4,14,880
Reference price 2 5.270 5.790 5.560 5.680 6.390 5.940 5.940 5.940
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,45,70,929 2,45,70,929 2,47,52,196 2,47,52,196 2,47,41,865 2,46,64,775 2,46,64,775 -
Announcement Date 30/03/21 30/03/22 30/03/23 28/03/24 28/03/25 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

P/E ratio, Detailed evolution

P/E (Y) EV / Sales (Y) EV / EBITDA (Y) Dividend Yield (Y) Capi.($)
5.73x0.42x8.05x2.79% 2.01TCr
63.65x2.62x25.56x0.08% 8.36TCr
14.05x1.16x6.41x4.18% 8.2TCr
26.38x1.96x18.66x1.2% 5.12TCr
37.14x4.21x25.14x0.2% 4.79TCr
55.27x4.67x29.69x1.67% 4.56TCr
28.78x0.66x11.47x2.18% 3.27TCr
25.11x1.65x15.68x0.18% 3.16TCr
4.52x0.27x5.09x5.27% 3.09TCr
31.34x0.57x9.16x2.13% 3.07TCr
Average 29.20x 1.82x 15.49x 1.99% 4.56TCr
Weighted average by Cap. 33.04x 2.05x 16.76x 1.88%

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Historical PBR trend

Evolution Enterprise Value / Sales

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

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