Company Valuation: China Railway Group Limited

Data adjusted to current consolidation scope
Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Market Cap 1 1,32,027 1,29,563 1,29,985 1,46,872 1,25,156 1,04,224 - -
Change - -1.87% 0.33% 12.99% -14.79% -16.72% - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 2,65,041 2,80,201 3,63,798 4,09,704 4,46,245 4,75,988 5,36,959 5,73,634
Change - 5.72% 29.83% 12.62% 8.92% 6.67% 12.81% 6.83%
P/E 5.58x 4.64x 4.4x 5.89x 6.38x 5.15x 4.87x 4.73x
PBR 0.52x 0.54x 0.42x 0.45x 0.36x 0.28x 0.27x 0.26x
PEG - 0.3x 0.56x -0.4x -0.3x 1.78x 0.86x 1.65x
Capitalization / Revenue 0.12x 0.11x 0.1x 0.13x 0.11x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x
EV / Revenue 0.25x 0.24x 0.29x 0.35x 0.41x 0.44x 0.5x 0.53x
EV / EBITDA 5.43x 5.17x 5.99x 6.99x 9.4x 7.39x 7.77x 7.73x
EV / EBIT 7x 6.56x 7.71x 9.5x 13.5x 15.6x 12x 13.6x
EV / FCF -5.05x -17.3x -10x -15x -15.1x -20.5x -33.9x 47.5x
FCF Yield -19.8% -5.78% -9.97% -6.67% -6.6% -4.89% -2.95% 2.11%
Dividend per Share 2 0.196 0.2 0.21 0.178 0.086 0.2 0.1893 0.1948
Rate of return 3.39% 3.6% 3.7% 2.79% 1.59% 4.45% 4.22% 4.34%
EPS 2 1.037 1.198 1.292 1.084 0.848 0.8725 0.9222 0.9486
Distribution rate 18.9% 16.7% 16.3% 16.4% 10.1% 22.9% 20.5% 20.5%
Net sales 1 10,73,272 11,54,349 12,63,412 11,60,311 10,90,626 10,91,649 10,70,858 10,72,993
EBITDA 1 48,771 54,198 60,731 58,649 47,463 64,396 69,136 74,174
EBIT 1 37,845 42,700 47,171 43,142 33,146 30,594 44,611 42,298
Net income 1 27,618 31,276 33,483 27,887 22,892 24,061 23,374 23,434
Net Debt 1 1,33,014 1,50,639 2,33,813 2,62,832 3,21,090 3,71,763 4,32,734 4,69,410
Reference price 2 5.790 5.560 5.680 6.390 5.410 4.490 4.490 4.490
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,45,70,929 2,47,52,196 2,47,52,196 2,47,41,865 2,46,64,838 2,45,31,310 - -
Announcement Date 30/03/22 30/03/23 28/03/24 28/03/25 30/03/26 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

P/E, Detailed evolution

P/E (Y) EV / Sales (Y) EV / EBITDA (Y) Dividend Yield (Y) Capi.($)
5.19x0.44x7.4x4.42% 1.55TCr
65.47x2.83x27.68x0.07% 9.49TCr
13.14x1.06x5.83x4.47% 7.13TCr
39.68x4.86x26.95x0.17% 6.02TCr
25.43x1.95x18.89x1.22% 5.48TCr
55.26x4.6x29.38x1.67% 4.58TCr
33.15x0.78x13.15x1.91% 3.92TCr
27.69x0.54x8.62x2.16% 3.54TCr
25.39x1.65x15.85x0.19% 3.31TCr
4.79x0.3x5.8x5.95% 2.84TCr
Average 29.52x 1.90x 15.95x 2.22% 4.78TCr
Weighted average by Cap. 35.11x 2.24x 18.12x 1.83%

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Historical PBR trend

Evolution Enterprise Value / Sales

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

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