Copyright © BusinessAMBE 2023
The devastating crash of Air India flight AI171 on June 12, 2025 in Ahmedabad, India, sent shock waves through the global aviation community. At least 269 lives were claimed and only one man survived the crash. This tragedy, combined with a series of recent U.S. crashes earlier this year, has once again raised questions about whether plane crashes occur in multiples of three within short periods of time. Statistical models suggest that such clusters are not unusual, driven by the random nature of rare events.
A catastrophic loss
On Thursday, June 12, 2025, Air India flight AI171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner bound for London Gatwick, crashed just 30 seconds after taking off from Ahmedabad's Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport at 1:38 p.m. local time. With 230 passengers and 12 crew members on board, including 169 Indian nationals, 53 British nationals, seven Portuguese nationals and one Canadian, the plane sent out a mayday call before losing its signal at 625 feet, according to Flightradar24. The plane crashed in the Meghani Nagar residential area and hit a doctor's hostel of the B.J. Medical College and Civil Hospital, causing a massive explosion and fire partly due to the full fuel tanks for the long-haul flight.
The crash killed 241 of the 242 people on board and at least 28 on the ground, making it one of India's worst aviation disasters in decades and the first fatal crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner. The sole survivor, Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, a 40-year-old Briton of Indian descent who was sitting next to an emergency exit, described to the Hindustan Times how the plane's lights flickered before it fatally crashed. Ramesh, who suffered multiple injuries but is out of danger, called his family from the wreckage and did not know how to escape.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the crash site on June 13 and coordinated relief efforts, while Air India and its parent company, the Tata Group, pledged about 100,000 Euros per victim's family and medical aid for the injured. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Britain's Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) are assisting India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau in investigating the cause, with initial speculation on X pointing to possible pilot error or engine problems.
Recent U.S. crashes
The Air India crash follows a cluster of U.S. aviation incidents earlier in 2025, fueling speculation about sequences of three crashes within short periods of time. Between Jan. 29 and Feb. 6, three major crashes occurred in the United States, resulting in 84 deaths.
Jan. 29, 2025: A collision between an American Airlines regional jet and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter near Washington, D.C., killed 67 people.
Jan. 31, 2025: A medical plane crashed in a Philadelphia neighborhood, claiming seven lives, including one on the ground.
Feb. 6, 2025: A Bering Air Cessna 208B Grand Caravan crashed in Alaska, with no survivors among the 10 occupants.
These incidents, which occurred within eight days, fit the pattern of three consecutive crashes. Newsweek reported 250 U.S. aviation incidents on April 24, 2025, of which about 215 were fatal, indicating a turbulent year, but this early cluster stands out.
The Air India crash, raises the question of whether another such sequence could occur in 2025....
Statistical models for rare events
To check whether these clusters are unusual, experts rely on the Poisson process, a statistical model for rare, independent events such as in this case: airplane crashes.
The Poisson process predicts that short intervals between events are more likely than long ones because of the exponential distribution of time between events. This distribution has a "memoryless" character, where the probability of an event in a short time interval is relatively high just after a previous event. This leads to clustering of rare events, such as plane crashes, despite their low average frequency.
For large accidents (with more than 40 deaths), the average time between accidents is about 36 days, as reported in Freakonometrics. This means that the probability of three accidents within 45 days is statistically plausible, especially over a 35-year period (1990-2025).
With an average frequency of, say, one major accident every 36 days, the probability of three accidents within 45 days is about 23.2 percent per period, as calculated in previous analyses. Over 35 years (1990-2025), there are about 284 45-day periods, meaning that clusters of three accidents within 45 days are statistically expected.
In Elizabeth, New Jersey, from 1951 to 1952, three crashes occurred within 57 days near Newark Airport. This cluster, totaling 119 deaths, led to the temporary closure of Newark Airport
Dec. 16, 1951: A Miami Airlines flight crashed, killing 56.
Jan. 2, 1952: An American Airlines flight crashed, killing 30.
Feb. 11, 1952: A National Airlines flight crashed, killing 33.
Specific examples of clusters within 45 days since 1990 include:
July 2014: Three major crashes within eight days:
July 17: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (298 dead).
July 23: TransAsia Airways (48 dead).
July 24: Air Algérie (116 dead).
A clear example that a sequence of three within short periods is statistically plausible.
January-February 2025: Three crashes in the U.S. within eight days:
Jan. 29: Midair collision near Washington, D.C. (67 dead).
Jan. 31: Medical plane in Philadelphia (7 dead).
Feb. 6: Bering Air Cessna in Alaska (10 dead).
Public perception and cognitive biases
The Air India crash, widely reported by channels such as The Guardian and CNN, has heightened public concern, especially on X, where users speculate on causes such as misconfiguration of flaps or fuel supply problems. Cluster illusion, a cognitive bias in which people see patterns in random data, reinforces the perception that crashes occur in threes, especially in emotionally charged events. The New York Times noted that media attention to recent incidents reinforces this, yet aviation remains safer than driving, with a 1 in 11 million chance of being killed in an accident.
Seasonal and causal factors
Could weather or other factors cause these clusters? The BBC suggests that thunderstorms may contribute, but the Poisson model accounts for such variations in average crash rates. The Air India crash occurred during warm weather, but there is no specific link between weather and the incidents in the U.S., which occurred under different winter conditions. Early reports on AI171 indicate possible technical problems-X reports mention a mayday call with "no thrust, losing power," but the investigation is ongoing.
Impact on travelers
The Air India crash, coupled with the U.S. cluster, has increased anxiety among travelers, but experts are calling for calm. The NTSB, FAA and Indian authorities are investigating, but there is no evidence of systemic problems yet. The Boeing 787's safety record was impeccable until AI171, and the overall death toll in aviation remains low. The Washington Post reported that Ahmedabad airport is resuming limited operations and that Air India has set up assistance centers at several airports.
For now, the evidence suggests that these crashes, including AI171, correspond to random statistical patterns rather than a coordinated cause. As the investigation continues, the focus is on supporting the victims' families and improving safety, just as with the regulatory changes following the 1951-1952 Elizabeth crashes.
Conclusion
While the crash of Air India flight AI171 is an isolated tragedy, statistical reality underscores that plane crashes can occur in sequences of three, as seen in the U.S. cluster of early 2025 and other historical cases. The Poisson process explains these as coincidences, not systemic failures. While the world mourns the more than 269 lives lost in Ahmedabad, travelers can take comfort from aviation's robust safety record and ongoing efforts to learn from each tragedy to make the future safer.
© The Content Exchange, source News
