Projected Income Statement: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 970 1,458 2,027 2,429 3,432 4,011 3,321 1,705
Change - 50.31% 39.03% 19.83% 41.29% 16.87% -17.2% -48.66%
Announcement Date 27/01/22 26/01/23 25/01/24 22/01/25 22/01/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 292 1,671 1,494 1,281 1,588 1,372 1,496 1,934
Change - 472.26% -10.59% -14.26% 23.97% -13.61% 9.03% 29.32%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 738 -253 -444 183 -339 340 579.2 213.5
Change - -134.28% -75.49% 141.22% -285.25% 200.29% 70.34% -63.14%
Announcement Date 27/01/22 26/01/23 25/01/24 22/01/25 22/01/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Alaska Air Group, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 5.85% 14.85% 14.5% 14.07% 11.2% 13.29% 15.45% 15.08%
EBIT Margin (%) -4.65% 7.53% 8.18% 7.34% 3.86% 6.59% 8.64% 8.88%
EBT Margin (%) 10.18% 0.82% 3.1% 4.64% 1.03% 5.62% 7.59% 7.26%
Net margin (%) 7.74% 0.6% 2.25% 3.37% 0.7% 4.13% 5.49% 5.34%
FCF margin (%) 11.95% -2.62% -4.26% 1.56% -2.38% 2.21% 3.55% 1.24%
FCF / Net Income (%) 154.39% -436.21% -188.94% 46.33% -339% 53.58% 64.67% 23.18%

Profitability

        
ROA -1.83% 3.94% 4.05% 3.64% 1.46% 3.23% 4.61% -
ROE -7.54% 14.6% 14.71% 14.73% 6.9% 14.72% 19.33% 18.59%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.69x 1.02x 1.34x 1.47x 2.15x 1.97x 1.32x 0.66x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.31x -5.76x -4.57x 13.27x -10.12x 11.8x 5.73x 7.98x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.73% 17.32% 14.33% 10.92% 11.15% 8.93% 9.17% 11.21%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 80.89% 116.69% 98.81% 77.59% 99.56% 67.24% 59.35% 74.36%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 39.57% -660.47% -336.49% 700% -468.44% 403.47% 258.26% 905.98%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 8.125 11.09 8.158 11.4 10.41 13.99 17.45 -
Change - 36.46% -26.42% 39.79% -8.68% 34.32% 24.74% -
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 30.19 29.92 32.62 35.51 35.64 42.26 52.26 64.92
Change - -0.89% 9.02% 8.86% 0.38% 18.55% 23.67% 24.23%
EPS 1 3.77 0.45 1.83 3.08 0.83 6.875 10.8 8.37
Change - -88.06% 306.67% 68.31% -73.05% 728.31% 57.14% -22.52%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,25,311 1,26,838 1,28,053 1,26,945 1,15,989 1,14,641 1,14,641 1,14,641
Announcement Date 27/01/22 26/01/23 25/01/24 22/01/25 22/01/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio 6.15x 3.92x
PBR 1x 0.81x
EV / Sales 0.59x 0.51x
Yield - -

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AAA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
15
Last Close Price
43.80USD
Average target price
70.80USD
Spread / Average Target
+61.64%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. ALK Stock
  4. Financials Alaska Air Group, Inc.