Airbus is the world's leading manufacturer of aircraft with more than 100 seats, with 71.8% of its sales coming from commercial aircraft. The company is also active in defense and aerospace systems (17.4%) and civil and military helicopters (10.8%).
Its direct competitor, Boeing, is years behind due to under-investment, which has considerably degraded the operational performance and quality of its aircraft. Aeronautical cycles are long: Boeing won't recover overnight.
Airbus is well positioned to take advantage of the growth in air traffic, which is set to double in the next 20 years. All the more so as there is currently a crying shortage of aircraft. Demand is expected to grow by 8% a year over the next three years.
With the election of Donald Trump, we can expect a reduction in US support for NATO, which would push Europe to increase its defense spending, directly benefiting Airbus, whose defense business accounts for 17% of its sales.
A strong dollar favors exporters like Airbus, since 75% of its revenues are in dollars.
North America accounts for 24% of Airbus sales. They've had factories in the U.S. for 10 years now. The A220 and A320neo families are assembled in Alabama, and helicopters in Mississippi. And today, over 3,200 people are directly employed in the USA.
The A321neo and its long-haul XLR version have been a commercial success, filling a gap left by Boeing in the long-haul single-aisle market.
Airbus expects to deliver around 770 commercial aircraft in 2024, despite supply challenges. The company is strengthening its Defense & Space division to improve its competitiveness, and has launched initiatives to increase operational efficiency. Airbus' order book is at a record level, with 8749 aircraft and 922 helicopters, guaranteeing more than ten years of production.
After an 8% drop in earnings per share in 2024, profits should rebound by 30-35% in 2025.
The main risks for Airbus include supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions and increased competition. However, demand for the A320neo family remains strong, and the company has a net cash position of 7.2 billion euros. Procurement challenges, notably with Spirit AeroSystems, could affect A320 delivery and production targets. The tight labor market also limits Airbus' ability to rapidly ramp up production.
Airbus represents an attractive investment opportunity in the aerospace and defense sector. Despite the challenges, the company has solid fundamentals and a clear strategy for maintaining its leadership position. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with the supply chain and market volatility.