Interest rates: no new figures, but yields are rising
Wall Street is gearing up for a decisive week, not because of the expected figures, but because of the quarterly results of several US economic heavyweights, starting this Wednesday, January 15.
The major US banks will be in the spotlight during this first week of the earnings season, with publications from Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo scheduled for the day after tomorrow, followed by those of Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.
Comments from these leading financial institutions will provide investors with an interesting read on the current state of the economy, consumer spending and the economic outlook in the USA.
If the figures show that their activity is running out of steam (as is the case for revolving credit, with a fall in volumes demanded), this would paradoxically be good news in the current climate of yield tension: the markets are expecting only 1 more monetary easing in 2024, and 2 at most by 2025.
Yield tension is not confined to T-Bonds: it's worse in Europe, with spreads of +3.5pts on our OATs at 3.458%, +1.6pts on Bunds at 2.5840% (the OAT/Bund spread is widening to +87.5pts) and +5pts on Italian BTPs at 3.826%.
But once again, and this has become something of a habit, British Gilts are doing worse than continental debt, with a yield of 4.945% (+4.5pts), which remains anchored near 5.000%.
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