By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for September delivery rose 1.4%, to $5.54 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with traders covering short positions in hopes of a surprise out of Friday's WASDE report.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.7%, to $10.14 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.2%, to $4.16 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


High Hopes: Wheat futures led CBOT grain futures higher, with wheat seen as most likely to post a surprise cut to acreage or yields. "It looks like any surprise could be on the bull side for prices," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Winter wheat conditions have struggled with health and quality issues, which in turn has given some traders and analysts hope that prices have further room to rally.

Stuck in Place: CBOT trading was constrained for most of the day, with traders seen as risk averse ahead of Friday's WASDE report from the USDA. "I don't think we will see much reaction to the report as I suspect the USDA will not be making any production changes to corn or beans," said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. He adds that the USDA tends to be more likely to cut yields in its July reports than raise them, so any movement would likely spur rallying in prices--a factor supporting higher grain futures Thursday.

Bin Buster: Brazil's agricultural agency Conab issued new projections for a record-large crop. Brazil is expected to produce 339.6 million tons of grain, up 14% from the previous year. It is a record-sized return, with soybeans and corn both contributing as much as 15% more than they did last year. Soybean production is projected at 169.5 million tons for the year, and corn production is seen at 132 million tons. Before the report's release, Marex analyst Terry Reilly had forecast Brazilian soybean production at 170.5 million tons, with corn at 129.7 million tons.


INSIGHT


10-Day Plan: Grain futures on the CBOT continue to be bogged down by exceptional weather seen in U.S. crop-growing areas. Heavy rain was seen in South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa overnight, with scattered rains expected in the northern portion of the Corn Belt through the rest of the week, said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. An outlook from the National Weather Service says that temperatures in the Corn Belt are expected to be near-normal or below over the next 6-10 days--easy conditions for U.S. crops to develop in. "U.S. growing season weather remains almost impossibly beneficial and record yield rhetoric will continue," said Zeller.

Nothing Certain: Equity markets appear to have shaken off President Trump's proposed 50% tariff on Brazil. The DJIA is up 0.4%, with the S&P 500 rising 0.1%. Threats to Brazilian trade aren't enough to drive market panic, said John Higgins of Capital Economics in a note. "Brazil simply isn't a big enough trading partner of the U.S. to rattle global markets," says Higgins.

Switching Over: It is now more likely for the existing climate system to shift from neutral to La Nina by fall or early winter months. But the change into La Nina is expected to be mild, remaining "comparable to ENSO-neutral," said the NWS. The NWS forecasts easterly trade winds to strengthen this month, a possible sign of cooler conditions ahead.


AHEAD


--The USDA will publish its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-10-25 1557ET