Washington cracks down on copper imports, a market dominated by its neighbors and China

Tariffs are once again the focus of attention. After beginning to send letters to several countries on Monday, yesterday Donald Trump announced his intention to impose a 50% tax on copper imports. While the US administration is emphasizing its desire to counter China's dominance, the US is primarily dependent on imports from South America.

US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday the upcoming introduction of a 50% tariff on imports of copper, a metal essential for green technologies, defense, electronics, and many consumer products. This decision is part of his drive to reindustrialize the country, with a particular focus on strategic metals.

In February, the White House launched an investigation into copper flows into the country, including raw ore, concentrates, alloys, recycled copper, and copper products.

The investigation was conducted by the Department of Commerce under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. If the investigation concludes that there is a threat to national security, the president may impose tariffs.

Initially, the findings of the investigation were expected in November. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said yesterday that the tariffs are expected to take effect by the end of July or August 1.

Section 232 has already been used several times by this administration, notably to impose tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum. Other investigations are still ongoing in this context, notably on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, construction timber, critical minerals, and aeronautics.

Regional dependence rather than Chinese dependence

Contrary to the Trump administration's repeated claims about Chinese dominance, the data reveal a more nuanced reality. The US produces just over half of the refined copper it consumes each year domestically, mainly in Arizona. The state alone accounts for more than two-thirds of national production, even though the development of a new mega-mine there has been blocked for more than a decade.

To make up the shortfall, the country imports just under one million tons of refined copper each year. However, more than 90% of these imports come from three countries in the Americas: Chile, Canada, and Peru, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

China, a giant in refining and mining investment

Although China supplies only a fraction of the refined copper used in the United States, it dominates the global refining scene. Its numerous and powerful smelters process ore that is mostly imported, particularly from Latin America. Chile and Peru together account for about one-third of global copper extraction.

In addition, Beijing has consolidated its grip on global mining by investing heavily in copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Thanks to these Chinese investments, the DRC has become the world's second-largest copper producer, now ahead of Peru.

Conversely, US refining capacity remains limited: the United States has only two primary copper smelters, according to the USGS. This industrial reality complicates any ambition for rapid self-sufficiency in this strategic sector.

In the wake of Donald Trump's announcements, copper prices in the United States jumped more than 12% to a historic high of over $12,330 per metric ton.

This will further widen the gap between prices on the COMEX (Commodity Exchange, the New York metals market) and those on the London Metal Exchange, currently around $9,585 per ton. Operators expect this premium to attract more metal to the US.