Let's take a step back in time: in 2019, during his first term as president, Donald Trump signed an agreement with Mexico to avoid an anti-dumping investigation and the imposition of tariffs. Dumping, as a reminder, is the practice of selling a product abroad at a price lower than that charged in one's own country.
In April, Washington announced its withdrawal from the agreement, giving three months' notice. Until now, Mexico had committed to respecting a minimum price and other constraints to avoid taxes. The Department of Commerce said it had been "flooded with comments" from US tomato producers who wanted better protection against Mexican products.
Mexican tomatoes are subject to a single tax that does not add to the 30% already imposed on Mexico on Saturday.
A case of dumping?
Supporters say that the measures will protect a declining domestic industry and ensure that tomatoes consumed in the US are also produced on US soil. Today, Mexico supplies about 70% of the US tomato market, up from 30% twenty years ago. In 2024 alone, imports reached $3.12bn, according to Bloomberg.
Why this dependence? Mexican greenhouses produce tomatoes ripened on the vine all year round. Meanwhile, in Florida, they are grown in open fields, often picked green, with production in the winter remaining limited. Today, two-thirds of tomatoes consumed in the United States are processed (sauces, preserves), with the rest being fresh tomatoes. And nearly three-quarters of this supply comes from abroad, 90% of which is from Mexico.
Supporters of the tariffs say they will breathe new life into an industry "decimated by an influx of cheap Mexican tomatoes." But others warn that prices are likely to rise, hurting consumers. Analysts anticipate a 10% increase in the most dependent states and an average increase of 8.5%.
Beyond tomatoes
Beyond tomatoes, the debate extends to other sectors: should US production be protected at all costs, even if it means higher prices for consumers? Donald Trump denounces "sectoral imbalances," but while Mexican tomatoes are more appealing than those from Florida, it is because they better meet consumer demand. The same dilemma also arises for European cars, for example.
Will Trump manage to reconcile two conflicting objectives: supporting local producers and preserving consumer access to affordable products? The answer may well go beyond the simple case of tomatoes.
