Wall Street: the divorce from the fixed-income markets is complete
November 13, 2024 at 04:01 am IST
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Wall Street ended slightly in the red, after a 5th positive opening and a small air pocket at around 7pm... which was quickly filled (buyers are still present).
The final scores are very close to those observed at 5:35pm, when the European markets closed: 2 of the 3 US indices are down -0.1% (Nasdaq) or -0.3% ('S&P') and the Dow Jones is down -0.86%.... but these gaps are nowhere near the -2.8% observed on the Paris Bourse or the -2.25% of the Euro-Stoxx50.
For a week now, European equities have been arbitraged in favor of their American counterparts. And while Wall Street did not advance on Tuesday, the US indices widened their gap (in their favor) even further than on Monday.
In another sign of US investor confidence (or complacency?), the 'VIX' eased from -1.7% to 14.7... as if Wall Street were on the rise.
It's hardly surprising that the Old Continent's indices are languishing: not only have they been battered lately by the climate of political uncertainty, but also by sluggish growth and disappointing corporate results.
It was the opposite this evening on Wall Street, with Spotify surging +10% after the publication of its quarterly results.... while in Germany, Bayer plunged by -15%. The Nasdaq-100 fell by 0.15% (but remains above 21,000), while Nvidia became the world's 1st largest capitalization with a +2.1% gain (Apple made 0.00%) and a new record at $148.3: the stock now "weighs" $3.638Bn, i.e. 12.5% of US GDP (or 1/8th). Tesla, on the other hand, fell back by -6.2% and reduced its 'capi' by $650Mn to $1.055Bn, causing the Nasdaq Composite to fall (the opposite was true the previous day, with +0.1%): Tesla has been 100% on trend for 2 days now.
The real "black spot" of the session - and it's more or less the same as it's been for the past 8 weeks - was on the bond front: US 10-year T-Bonds rallied by +12.2pts to around 4.4300% (their worst level since July 2), the 30-year by +9.1pts to 4.5700% and the 2-year by +9 to 4.344%. The '10 yr' is +83Pts since September 18 (as if the FED were going to tighten rates by at least 3 times 25Pts in 2025, or even 4 times.
In the meantime, the S&P500 will have risen from 5,617 to 6,017Pts, i.e. +400Pts, or +6.66%... the biggest gap - or divorce - between the fixed-income markets and the S&P500 (or the Nasdaq) in history.
How will it all end? There is no precedent for this in the last century...
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