The IBEX surpassed 11,400 points at Monday's opening, reaching the highest levels in nine years, at the start of a week marked by the first interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) since 2019.

With analysts taking it for granted that the ECB will cut the money rate on Thursday, the focus will be on any comments on next steps, especially after May inflation figures that surprised to the upside in the eurozone.

"(...) we believe it will be a 'hawkish' cut, with Lagarde (Christine, ECB president) predictably warning that it will not be the start of continued downgrades at subsequent ECB meetings, but rather data-dependent moves," said brokerage Renta 4.

These analysts highlighted the current context, "in which the latest inflation data are struggling to continue to fall towards the 2% target (...) in a scenario of an improving economic cycle, the Fed delaying its first rate cut to the end of the year and inflationary pressures in services, wages or energy (geopolitics)".

The market will also continue to watch the outlook for the cost of debt in the US, after Friday's Personal Consumption Deflator (PCE) figures came in slightly lower than expected, strengthening the case for the Fed to cut rates in September.

Investors will have more material to analyze in this regard with Monday's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI survey reading (1400 GMT), Wednesday's ADP employment data and, most importantly, Friday's full labor market report.

According to interest rate futures on LSEG's IRPR tool, markets currently expect a total of 37 basis points of rate cuts this year, down 0.25 basis points and a 50% chance of a second cut.

According to IRPR, the odds of a rate cut in September are 52%.

Against this backdrop, at 07:15 GMT on Monday, the selective Spanish stock market index IBEX 35 was up 95.40 points, or 0.84%, to 11,417.40 points, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index of large European stocks was up 0.75%. The last time the Spanish selective closed above 11,400 points was on July 23, 2015.

In the banking sector, Santander was up 0.58%, BBVA scored 1.56%, Caixabank advanced 0.83%, Sabadell gained 0.77%, Bankinter appreciated 0.62% and Unicaja Banco rose 0.37%.

Among the large non-financial stocks, Telefónica gained 0.51%, Inditex advanced 1.26%, Iberdrola gained 0.50%, Cellnex gained 0.60%, and the oil company Repsol rose 0.97%.

(Information by Tomás Cobos; edited by Javi West Larrañaga)