FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - The Dax and stock markets worldwide are heading for the most exciting week of the year after the recent weak phase. In addition to the all-overshadowing US elections, the focus is on the Fed's interest rate decision. In addition, the corporate reporting season has many more business figures in store.

After three days of significant price losses that pushed the DAX below the 21-day line, which is important for the short-term trend, it has recently recovered somewhat. So far, the 50-day line, which is an indicator for the medium-term trend, has held. Since the beginning of the year, the leading German index has still recorded a substantial double-digit percentage gain. The record high of just under 19,675 points reached in mid-October is also still within sight.

The US elections on Tuesday are likely to have a decisive influence on whether the DAX will regain this record high in the new week or fall further. The latest polls promise a neck-and-neck race between Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican ex-President Donald Trump - "with a slight advantage for Trump recently", as strategist Claudia Windt from Landesbank Helaba writes. The future majorities in both chambers of Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives, are also uncertain. These will have a considerable influence on the future incumbent's political options.

Capital market strategist Jürgen Molnar from the broker Robomarkets expects fluctuations on the stock markets at least until Wednesday morning - "or even beyond, should we (then) not yet know the winner". Regardless of the outcome of the election, the first reaction on Wall Street is likely to be relief "that the event is behind the market". However, Molnar emphasizes that this is conditional on the loser acknowledging his defeat. In January 2021, supporters of Donald Trump, who was still in office but had been voted out of office, stormed the seat of Congress to prevent the appointment of the victorious Democrat Joe Biden. To this day, Trump does not acknowledge his defeat at the time.

Helaba expert Windt warns that an ambiguous election result could lead to the loser legally forcing a recount of the votes. The resulting threat of political paralysis and uncertainty is likely to lead to further shifts on the financial markets into "safe havens" such as gold and bonds, as the recent record gold price and share price losses have already shown.

The domestic economy is humming and unemployment is low, which should actually benefit Harris and the Democrats, according to economist Alexander Buhrow from DZ Bank. Nevertheless, many voters are skeptical about the economic situation. They also believe Trump has more economic expertise than Harris. In addition, Trump is perceived as more competent in other important policy areas such as migration and crime. This will be a problem for the Democratic candidate, who has recently fallen behind Trump in some important swing states, according to polls.

In most US states, it is already considered certain which candidate will prevail. Only the seven so-called swing states are contested. They are the key to the necessary majority in the electoral college. In the end, the candidate who received fewer votes nationwide than their rival can also be elected - as Trump did in his 2016 victory against Hillary Clinton.

The US elections are largely overshadowing other equally important events in the new week. For example, the Fed's interest rate decision is due on Thursday evening European time. A further interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points is almost certain. This is shown by the "Fed Watch Tool" of the CME options exchange, which tracks bets on future interest rate developments. The latest US labor market report, which hardly moved the markets, even strengthened these expectations somewhat. However, according to a commentary by Dekabank, its significance is lower than usual this time due to distortions caused by storms and the strike at US aircraft manufacturer Boeing.

The focus is also likely to be on statements by the US monetary authorities on the future interest rate path. The outcome of the US elections is of great importance for monetary policy, as Joe Biden's successor can appoint a new Fed Chairman - who must then be confirmed by the Senate.

Apart from politics and monetary policy, corporate figures are likely to continue to influence market developments. In Germany, logistics group DHL and online fashion retailer Zalando will open the DAX companies' results on Tuesday. However, the latter has already published key figures for the third quarter and raised its outlook.

Commerzbank, the medical group Fresenius, the consumer goods manufacturer Henkel and BMW will then report on their business performance in the middle of the week. This will be followed on Thursday by reinsurer Munich Re, commercial vehicle manufacturer Daimler Truck, armaments group and automotive supplier Rheinmetall and building materials group Heidelberg Materials./gl/edh/he

--- By Gerold Lohle, dpa-AFX ---