The uptrend should hold until the final bell in Paris (+0.8%): indices hesitated a little early in the morning, but 'cheap buybacks' seem to be winning the day, while Wall Street is holding firm after 5 consecutive sessions of gains.
Not only are the US indices digesting last week's spectacular gains, but they are also continuing their advance for the 6th consecutive session: the S&P500 and Nasdaq (+0.2%) are positioned to set new all-time closing records, and why not "intraday/closing doubles" by 10pm.
After all, the "4 Witches" session will take place on Friday, and the Nasdaq is up +17%: the temptation will be strong to ride the uptrend to push Wall Street to the top and end the 1st half on a high note.

The CAC is up +0.8% towards 7,570 after having tested the 7,470Pts support zone again this Latin (and spent around 1 hour in negative territory since January 1st).
It should be remembered that the Paris market fell by over 6% last week, a weekly decline unseen since the end of 2022, and the differential with the Nasdaq exceeded 9%, which is "historic".

The Euro-Stoxx50 recovered by 0.8% towards 4,880, but this was still insufficient to regain the former support of the 4,900Pts mark.

The market's mistrust of a possible rise to power of the RN or the new Front Populaire was quickly felt on the government bond market.

The spread between French 10-year OAT yields (3.155%) and the German benchmark widened sharply to over 80 basis points on Friday... before falling back by -7.5pts on Monday.
OATs eased by -1.5pts to 3.155%, but Bunds tightened by +6pts to 2.415%.
On the other hand, Italian BTPs came under little pressure, gaining +3pts to 3.945%.... and the Portuguese 10-year continues to do very well, with a parity score of 3.156%... identical to that of our OATs.

The fact that the surge in volatility has not been confined to equities, as illustrated by the collapse of the euro during Friday's session, is prompting some observers to worry about the ongoing stock market correction.

We fear that the yield spread on French bonds, the decline in equities and, potentially, the fall in the euro will persist at least until July 7", warns Christopher Dembik, Investment Strategy Advisor at Pictet AM.

Our scenario is based more on an increase in volatility, with phases of fall followed by rebounds, rather than a continuous fall", he adds.

According to the analyst, everything will depend on the evolution of the polls.

Let's not forget that the political risk is not only French: the coalition in power in Germany is facing major differences over the budget, and a new government is due to be formed in Belgium", he points out.

The open question is how long this correction phase will last, and whether it marks the beginning of the end of the equity markets' rise.

Economic indicators, particularly those relating to inflation, which are likely to influence the trajectory of central banks' monetary policies, should therefore continue to have a major impact this week.
In the meantime, we have just discovered that manufacturing activity fell slightly in June in the New York area, according to the local Fed's 'Empire State' survey.
New orders remained stable, while shipments rose slightly. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment and hours worked continuing to contract.

The pace of input and selling price increases slowed slightly for the second consecutive month. Although current activity remains weak, optimism about the six-month outlook reached its highest level in over two years.
The only cause for satisfaction: the 'general conditions' index gained ten points, but remained below zero, at -6.0.

T-Bonds deteriorated sharply on Monday, with +8pts to 4.2920%, supporting the Dollar, which resumed its advance with +0.25% to 1.0715/E, while the '$ Index' remained completely stable at 105.55.


In the news for French companies, Casino announces the completion of its share consolidation, through the exchange of one hundred existing shares for one new share, and the completion of its capital reduction, through a reduction in the par value of its shares.

Thales announces that France's SIMu (Service Interarmées des Munitions) has signed an order for several tens of thousands of 120mm ammunition rounds, completing the order for 15,000 rounds signed in 2023.

Thales has also announced a contract with the Brazilian Air Force's DECEA, for the acquisition of Ground Master (GM 200 MM/A) all-in-one multi-mission radars, designed to enhance Brazil's air surveillance capabilities.

Finally, Airbus announces an order from Belgium for 15 H145M multi-role helicopters for the army, and for two of the same type, with three options, for the federal police.


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