CAC40: below 7,100, E-Stoxx50 below 4,500, VIX up 200% in 48 hours
The Euro-Stoxx50 is down -3%, below 4,500, or -12% from its highs.
The Dow Jones is down more than 1,000pts right from the start (-2.6%), but that's nothing compared with the Nasdaq's -4.5%... and the S&P500 is down -3% (to 5.180), with paroxysmal volatility reaching +180% in the early afternoon, to set a mark of 62, a level not seen since the Covid crisis and especially the autumn of 2008.
To make matters worse, the US 'services' PMI came in weak, at 55 versus 55.9 expected, confirming a clear slowdown in growth.
The day got off to a bad start with a crash on the Tokyo stock exchange: the Nikkei index fell this morning by 12.4% (after -13% during the session), the biggest drop in its history, but also over 48 hours, with a fall of 18.2%.
In 48 hours, the index erased all its gains since January 1, plunging into the red by -6%.
Taiwan's stock market, with a decline of almost -9%, recorded its worst correction in 57 years, while the Seoul stock market (-8.5%) had to suspend trading several times (downward reservations).
This rout is linked to the yen's surge of +8% in 1 week (still +2.7% this Monday at 142.5/$), which is weighing on exporters.
But above all, the cornucopia of the Carry Trade (liquidity offered by the BoJ to the financial markets at 0%, or even at negative rates since 2016) has suddenly dried up, and a whole house of cards based on borrowed money and the bet that the Yen will fall forever has disintegrated.
Leveraged volatility strategies reversed catastrophically, hence the +200% rise in the VIX in 48 hours.
On a less technical and more cyclical level, the markets suffered on Friday from the release of a "worrying" US employment report, according to Commerzbank, with only 114,000 new non-agricultural jobs created in July and the unemployment rate up 0.2 points to 4.3%.
At the same time, wages rose at a slower pace", pointed out the German bank, for whom this supported the scenario of a first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
On Monday, investors took note of the various composite PMI indices in final data for July, in particular that for the eurozone, which was down to 50.1 in flash estimates, signalling a virtual stagnation in the region's private sector.
After a promising start to the year, marked by a return to growth and a one-year expansion peak in May, the eurozone economy lost momentum again in July. Thus, the composite HCOB PMI index of overall activity in the eurozone fell from 50.9 in June to 50.2 in July, a five-month low.
In June 2024 compared with the previous month, industrial producer prices (PPI) rose by 0.5% in both the eurozone and the EU, according to Eurostat estimates, following decreases of 0.2% in both zones.
In France, the HCOB PMI composite index recovered slightly from 48.8 in June to 49.1 in July, signalling a further marginal contraction in overall activity, but remained below the 50 mark unchanged for a third consecutive month.
Other data due in the next few days include retail sales in the eurozone, followed by German industrial production for June, and France's unemployment rate for the second quarter.
Bond markets are acting as 'safe havens' in a desperate flight to 'safety' (a wave of 'risk-offs'): T-Bond yields are down 8pts to 3.707%, and 2-year yields are down 10pts to 3.772%.
The market is now anticipating -50Pts by the FED in September, -50Pts in November and -25 in December, i.e. -125Pts, at over 60%.
In Europe, the situation remains relatively stable, with Bunds and OATs unchanged at 2.16% and 2.960% respectively.
The Euro benefits in terms of remuneration: it jumps +0.5% to $1.0965.
On the corporate publication front, this week's releases include those of Novo Nordisk, Commerzbank, Ahold Delhaize and Deutsche Telekom in Europe, and Amgen, Caterpillar and Walt Disney in the US.
Société Générale has signed agreements with Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), a Swiss bank specializing in wealth and asset management, to sell it SG Kleinwort Hambros and Société Générale Private Banking Suisse.
Societe Generale also announced that it had signed an agreement with BRED Banque Populaire for the sale of the Group's entire 70% stake in Societe Generale Madagasikara in Madagascar, the financial terms of which were not specified.
L'Oréal announces the acquisition of a 10% stake in Galderma Group from Sunshine SwissCo (a consortium led by EQT), Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Auba Investment, for an undisclosed amount.
Lastly, oil company Maurel & Prom reported an almost doubling of net income (Group share) (+91%) for the first half of 2024, boosted by a 35% increase in production (M&P share).
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