Why the Fed Is Right to Bide Its Time on Rate Moves By Hardika Singh

Stock investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In some ways, it makes sense for the Fed to wait. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's employment trends index fell in April. And the SEC could seek an order that would prevent Robinhood from trading certain crypto assets. Read on for this news and more.

Top News Why the Fed Is Right to Bide Its Time on Rate Moves

If you want to know the trouble with a balanced outlook , ask a tightrope walker. The Fed has finally reached the stage of being balanced between whether interest rates are too high or too low. Unfortunately, it's a precarious balance, with exceptionally weak evidence that rates are in the right place. They might be too low or too high, but it will be hard to stay balanced for long.

U.S. Economy U.S. Jobs Growth Set to Slow, Conference Board Says

U.S. jobs growth could stall in the second half of 2024 , with signs of a slowing labor market, according to a monthly gauge of employment trends. The Conference Board's employment trends index fell to 111.25 in April from a downwardly revised 112.16 in March, the private-research group said Monday.

Financial Regulation SEC Prepares to Sue Robinhood Over Crypto Unit

The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing to sue Robinhood Markets' crypto unit, the company said Monday. That means the SEC is ramping up its crackdown on digital-currency trading to target one of the most popular U.S. brokerage firms.

Forward Guidance Tuesday (all times ET)

12:30 p.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision

3 p.m.: U.S. consumer credit


10 a.m.: U.S. wholesale trade for March

Research Indonesia Economy on Track for Stable Full-Year Growth

Indonesia's economy seems to be on track to post roughly the same pace of growth this year as it did last year, says Brian Lee, economist at Maybank Securities. Data for 1Q showed a pickup in on-year growth, largely due to an election boost, he says. The on-quarter GDP drop is seasonal and smaller than in 1Q of the past four years, Lee notes. The print was in line with Maybank's estimates, and it expects growth of 5.1% in 2024, broadly unchanged from 2023. A backdrop of growth and within-target inflation bolsters Bank Indonesia's case to be patient on rate cuts, Lee reckons. - Fabiana Negrinochoa

Basis Points Social Security's finances are in dire straits. An aging population is pushing up the cost of the program as a smaller share of Americans directly pay into it. That imbalance means that Social Security could become unable to provide full retirement and disability benefits to Americans in 2035, the program's trustees warned on Monday. -Andrew Duehren Beijing is unlikely to unwind stimulus even after China's 1Q GDP growth beat, Citi analysts say in a research note, adding that a possible policy shift had been a worry among investors. Citi points out that policymakers reiterated their commitment to further support growth at last week's Politburo meeting. - Tracy Qu China's foreign-exchange reserves likely fell by $16 billion to $3.230 trillion in April, as the yuan faced continued depreciation pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar, according to a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal. That would end a two-month streak of gains recorded in February and March. The People's Bank of China will release the data Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged Tuesday, and stuck with the message that it isn't ruling anything out as it seeks to bring inflation under control.- James Glynn About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ's global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Hardika Singh in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to [hardika.singh@wsj.com].

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

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05-07-24 0717ET