The bond markets are far from displaying the same optimism as the stock markets (8th consecutive all-time record in the making for the Nasdaq), particularly in the USA.

After Wednesday's bank holiday, T-Bonds reopened sharply lower, with yields soaring: +12pts on the '10-year' to 4.272%, +5pts on the '2-year' and '30-year' to 4.75% and 4.405% respectively.

No surprises from the BoE, with its decision to maintain rates expected to be 100%, so no reactions.

The recent slowdown in inflation, which last month reached the 2% target set by the central bank, is nonetheless beginning to fuel speculation about a forthcoming rate cut.

The signals sent by the British economy are contradictory", stress analysts at Oddo BHF, who on the one hand point to "robust" growth and rising wages and service prices, but also to a rising unemployment rate and a job market "close to an inflection point".

For its part, the SNB (Swiss National Bank) cut its key rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, which was expected given the moderation in inflation.

The Swiss '10-year' eased by -2.5pts to 0.635%, the '6-month' by -10pts to 1.0900%, and the '1-year' by -11pts (to 1.13%), proof that the SNB still has 'a lot left in the tank' in the eyes of the markets between now and the end of 2024.
A number of US statistics were published in the afternoon, including the latest figures for housing starts: down -5.5% to 1.277 million, compared with the consensus forecast of 1.37 million, after 1.35 million in April.
Building permits also fell, to an annualized 1.386 million in May in the US, after 1.44 million in April (the consensus forecast was for stability).
The Philly Fed index fell by 3 points to +1.3 this month.
The new orders sub-index remains negative but is improving, from -7.9 in May to -2.2 in June.

The employment sub-index improves, rebounding from -7.5 to -2.5, while the prices paid sub-index rises by +4 points to 22.5.

According to the survey, more than 32% of companies surveyed said they expected their business activity to increase over the next six months, 19% to decline and 47% to remain stable.

Unemployment benefit registrations fell by -5,000 to 238,000, but this was slightly less than expected, as the consensus was for -8,000 to 235,000.

Wall Street is now awaiting statements from 2 members of the FED to determine whether or not the recent figures published argue for an inflection of Jerome Powell's 'vigilant' speech on inflation.

On European bond markets, the spread between the yield on the ten-year German Bund (2.424%) and that on its French equivalent of the same maturity (3.15%) contracted this Thursday by 2.5Pts to +73Pts, which remains a 'high' since the Greek crisis at the beginning of 2012.
Further south, Italian BTPs remained perfectly stable at 3.945% and Spanish 'Bonos' shifted just 0.5Pts to 3.338%.

Across the Channel, British 'Gilts' tightened +2Pts to 4.09% after the BoE's unsurprising decision to maintain rates.



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