American stocks are still moving higher, and investors seem perfectly happy to defer the fear. The buy-the-dip reflex is alive. The reopening of Hormuz has instantly shifted the mood from panic to relief.

Investors have seen this movie before, though they would probably prefer not to call it that. In 2025, Trump's reciprocal tariffs knocked markets around, only for traders to rediscover what became known as the "TACO Trade": the belief that the president tends to begin negotiations with maximum disruption, then soften later. 

Wall Street has clawed its way back to record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recovered their earlier losses from the Iran shock. The rally has been powerful enough that the major indexes are heading for a third straight weekly gain. This morning, futures on Wall Street jumped by about 0.9% to 1.1%. That is a remarkable show of resilience.

A 10-day cease-fire between Lebanon and Israel is in place. That is giving investors more reason to lean into the de-escalation trade. The market is not declaring victory, but it is clearly willing to bet that diplomacy can still outrun disruption.

Meanwhile, earnings so far suggest that the U.S. consumer is still holding up better than many feared. Companies are not exactly thriving across the board, but neither are they collapsing in the dramatic way recession prophets keep advertising. However, strip out the enormous enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, and this market would look much more fragile. Without that torrent of money pouring into AI-linked names, the conversation would be uglier. Bank research would be full of darker words: recession, stagflation, layoffs, demand destruction. Instead, AI has become the market's all-purpose solvent.

Netflix fell sharply after projecting weaker margins and announcing the departure of Reed Hastings from his longtime leadership role. Alcoa dropped after reporting softer sales. Fifth Third slipped after earnings. Investors may be in a buying mood, but they remain selective. They are buying specific themes: de-escalation abroad, consumer durability at home, and the continued belief that AI is important enough to overpower almost any other anxiety. The rest of the market is invited to watch.

Meanwhile, outside the United States, the mood is a bit less breezy. Europe has been slower to match Wall Street's enthusiasm. Asian markets looked tired on Friday.  American investors are often quicker to price in relief and move on.

There is no major economic data due to end the week, which leaves the market focused on two things: earnings and central bankers speaking in public. Fed officials including Mary Daly, Tom Barkin, and Christopher Waller are on the schedule.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the balance of trade in Italy and the Euro Area; in China, the year-to-date foreign direct investment year-over-year; in Canada, housing starts; in the United States, speeches by Fed Barkin and Fed Waller. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97.930 
  • Gold: $4,784
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $98.37 (WTI) $90.24
  • United States 10 years: 4.31%
  • BITCOIN: $75,365

In corporate news:

  • Netflix fell sharply after co-founder Reed Hastings said he will leave the board in June, adding to investor concern as the company faces slowing revenue growth and searches for new expansion drivers.
  • OpenAI launched the GPT-Rosalind model for biology and drug discovery, with early users including Amgen, Moderna and Thermo Fisher Scientific.
  • Exxon Mobil withdrew an offer to sell its first two LNG cargoes from the Golden Pass plant in Texas, which is still operating below full capacity after a delayed startup.
  • Apple's iPhone shipments in China rose 20% in the first quarter, making it the fastest-growing major vendor in the market despite an overall decline in smartphone shipments.
  • More than 500 distribution workers at CVS Health's Virginia facility authorized industrial action starting May 1 if contract talks fail.
  • Uber Technologies will buy a 4.5% stake in Delivery Hero from Prosus for about 270 million euros as part of remedies linked to Prosus's acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com.
  • Tesla is expanding hiring in Taiwan for its Terafab AI chip project, signaling a deeper push into advanced semiconductor development.
  • Newmont said an earthquake caused no major damage at its Cadia operation in New South Wales, with near-term production not expected to be affected.
  • OpenAI is set to invest over $20 billion in Cerebras chips and take a stake in the company, according to The Information.
  • Ford is set to strengthen its partnerships with Chinese car manufacturers, according to the WSJ.
  • Intel is recruiting a chip manufacturing veteran from Samsung to bolster its foundry business.
  • Meta is raising prices for Quest headsets in the US amid component shortages.
  • Lockheed Martin has secured a $105 million contract from the US Space Force to modernise GPS.
  • Today's key earnings releases: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, State Street…

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Agree Realty Corporation: BMO Capital Markets downgrades to market perform from outperform with a target price of USD 86.
  • Albemarle Corporation: Baird downgrades to neutral from outperform with a target price of USD 210.
  • Exelon Corporation: Barclays downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 50 to USD 49.
  • Newmont Corporation: National Bank Financial downgrades to sector perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 140 to USD 130.
  • Nxp Semiconductors N.v.: Mizuho Securities downgrades to underperform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 255 to USD 188.
  • Onto Innovation Inc.: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 220 to USD 350.
  • Texas Instruments Incorporated: Mizuho Securities upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 160 to USD 215.
  • The Clorox Company: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 117 to USD 99.
  • Abbott Laboratories: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 136 to USD 108.
  • Aurora Innovation, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 4 to USD 5.
  • Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 175 to USD 225.
  • Manhattan Associates, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 240 to USD 183.
  • Occidental Petroleum Corporation: Melius Research LLC maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 49 to USD 63.
  • Servicetitan, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 105 to USD 75.