By Kirk Maltais

--Wheat for March delivery fell 1.3% to $5.23 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, as the weather forecast cleared up for farmers in South America and the U.S.

--Soybeans for March delivery fell 0.7% to $10.60 1/2 a bushel.

--Corn for March delivery fell 0.5% to $4.28 3/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Moisture Infusion: Weather conditions were brighter for crop growers in Argentina and Brazil, and moisture is on the way for South American areas receiving hot, dry weather, impacting their crops. "The forecasts for both the Central U.S. and South America have improved today, sparking the selling," said AgResource. This as tough cold conditions ease for U.S. wheat, AgResource said in a note.

Weekend Flare-Up: Some CBOT grain futures were under pressure this morning after President Trump called for 100% tariffs on Canada if the country reaches a free-trade deal with China. "Canada's recent agreement with China was to reduce EV tariffs from 100% to roughly 6.1% in exchange for Chinese concessions on Canadian ag exports like canola and peas," explains AgMarket.net in a note. "Canada insists that they are not pursuing free trade with China and they're operating within USMCA rules." It's the latest dust-up in ongoing trade tensions after the U.S. and EU argued over Greenland at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Shifting Stance: Long positions in CBOT soybeans among fund traders is shrinking. Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed that for the week ended Jan. 20, managed money funds cut exposure in soybean longs by nearly 8,000 contracts, while short positions fell by nearly 5,000 contracts. Meanwhile, these traders added interest in corn, gaining over 8,000 long contracts and over 7,500 short contracts. Fund traders remain net long in soybeans, by just over 10,000 contracts.

INSIGHTS

Bigger and Better: The estimates for Brazilian crop output are higher to start the week, with Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgRural boosting its view of the country's soybean production in 2026, with soybeans seen totaling 181 million metric tons this year, along with 136.6 million tons of corn. With harvesting still early in Brazil, outlooks for the size of the soybean harvest could keep growing, said RJO Futures in a note.

Elephant in the Room: President Trump is scheduled to give a speech in Clive, Iowa tomorrow, and may field several questions regarding E15, said Pro Farmer in a note. Farmers and agricultural groups expressed displeasure after a measure lifting the regulations around the year-round sale of E15 motor vehicle fuel were taken out of a bill being formulated in Congress to avert another government shutdown at the end of the month. While a "working group" was created to look into lifting the existing regulations surrounding E15, farmers had hoped that a change in those rules this year would create a new source of consumption for the record-sized corn crop harvested last fall.

AHEAD:

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-Valero Energy Corp. will release its fourth quarter earnings report at 6:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-Tractor Supply Co. will release its fourth quarter earnings report at 6:55 a.m ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

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01-26-26 1519ET