By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for March delivery rose 1.7% to $5.37 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday in response to ice blasts hitting Russian farmland.
--Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.1% to $11.23 1/2 a bushel.
--Corn for March delivery fell 0.2% to $4.27 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Ice Bath: CBOT wheat futures got a boost from ice seen developing in Russian areas, which could be "strangling the sleeping wheat beneath," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. "No one legitimately thinks the Russians have a big problem on their hands, but at least it is giving some hope to the bulls that we may avert another massive 90 million ton wheat crop," he said. Russia is the world's leading wheat exporter, so what happens to Russian wheat has implications for prices around the globe.
Mostly Ideal: Excessive rain in Northern Mato Grosso is causing soybean quality issues. But elsewhere in both Brazil and Argentina, weather remains ideal for growing and harvesting crops. "The South American pattern in late February remains favorable," said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. Farmland in central and northern Argentina are getting needed rainfall, while northern Brazil is getting needed rest from moisture. It appears that any weather issues are not big enough to derail record projections seen for Brazilian crops, said Flynn, making them a source of pressure for futures today.
INSIGHT
Supply and Demand Balance: After President Trump inspired some hope among traders and powered soybean futures higher last week, a projected record-size crop coming out of Brazil makes clear that low prices are needed to be competitive on the world export market. "A continuation of the rally will serve to only reduce U.S. competitiveness even further," said the Hightower Report in a note. "A move toward last week's highs is likely to encounter more significant hedge selling."
Looking for a Solution: A 46% uptick in farm bankruptcies in 2025 amid the largest U.S. corn crop on record has farmers on the ropes, said the Renewable Fuels Association in a note. To combat the financial strain weighing on farm country, allowing year-round sales of E15 -- gasoline blended with 15% ethanol -- will make a meaningful dent in the huge corn supply, RFA head Geoff Cooper said. "At first glance, a record corn crop should be good news - but in reality, it has created a crushing oversupply that is overwhelming farm country," he said.
Back to Normal: The winter weather that swept through the U.S. in late January proved to hinder ethanol production for only a week, said the EIA this week. Average daily ethanol production for the week ended Feb. 6 was 1.11 million barrels a day, a rebound close to where it was two weeks ago, before a winter storm bringing snow and bitter cold temperatures across the country sent production down to a level unseen in four months. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week had mostly forecast a recovery in production, with estimates ranging from 950,000 barrels a day to 1.056 million barrels a day. Last week, average production was reported at 956,000 barrels a day.
AHEAD
-Zoetis Inc. will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings report at 7 a.m. ET Thursday.
-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-11-26 1559ET
