By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for May delivery fell 1.1% to $5.90 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, sliding as world export prices favor suppliers like Russia instead of the U.S.
--Corn for May delivery rose 0.1% to $4.54 1/2 a bushel.
--Soybeans for May delivery rose 0.1% to $11.56 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Ramped Up Competition: U.S. wheat futures were under pressure as prices for exports from other countries continue to trend cheaper than their U.S. counterparts. This can be seen in a big way with the increasing amount of exports coming out of Russia. In a note, SovEcon estimates that Russian exports in March will total 3.8 million metric tons, versus the five-year average of 3.1 million tons. The firm pegs the spread in price between Russian and French wheat at $6 to $8 per ton, after being practically equal earlier this year, said SovEcon. "Given the current strong shipment pace and improving competitive position of Russian wheat, we do not rule out an upward revision in the future," the firm said.
Window of Time: Soybean futures got a boost later in the session, after President Trump said that a meeting between himself and Chinese president Xi would still be held in about five or six weeks. Reports of a delay to the meeting were one reason soybean futures took a steep dive Monday, but traders seem to be relieved that an alternative timeline has come out of the White House. Some analysts speculate that Trump is looking for a way to end the conflict without losing face. "I assume the President will have to find an off ramp sooner rather than later," said Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA in a note.
Losing Steam: CBOT grain futures turned mostly negative this morning after a strong start. The link between grains and crude oil futures appears to have broken in Tuesday's session, with grains falling even as crude oil maintains a 2.3% uptick for the day. Israel said that it has killed two major Iranian officials in airstrikes, but the dominant news is that the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed, this as President Trump's initiative to build a coalition to lock down the important route is encountering static.
INSIGHT
Shaping a Spectacle: Reports surfaced Tuesday that President Trump will hold an agricultural event at the White House next week. Both farmers and biofuel producers are said to be invited, with a potential unveiling of new biofuel blending quotas for 2026 and 2027. The rules could obligate larger fuel refiners to pick up the slack left by smaller refineries granted exemptions to blending requirements. AgResource said in a note that the reports raise expectations among U.S. farmers and the biofuel industry "that Trump will announce a large/favorable RVO package."
Hunting for Alternatives: White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC that the U.S. has been finding other sources of fertilizer as an insurance policy for the disruption brought on by the logjam at the Strait of Hormuz. "We've established licenses for Venezuela to produce more fertilizer," he said. "We've had discussions with Morocco, which has the largest reserve of potash anywhere on earth." Dropping duties on Moroccan potash has been something called for by the American Farm Bureau as a way to mitigate the rising costs for fertilizer ahead of the start of planting in the Corn Belt.
Tread With Caution: Farmers not only face high input costs and global volatility, but elevated interest rates that may not change anytime soon, according to Matt Erickson of Terrain, the ag-market forecaster. "Unless there is a structural change in the macroeconomic backdrop, long-term rates are likely to remain elevated despite U.S. monetary policy action," said Erickson in a note. He stresses the importance of farmers prioritizing cash flow, with grain futures still lower than break-even levels despite the run-up seen during the conflict with Iran.
AHEAD
--General Mills will release its third-quarter earnings report before the stock market opens on Wednesday.
--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-17-26 1500ET
