(Updated version following the failure of talks in Islamabad)

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Following the provisional collapse of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, the Dax is expected to come under pressure at the start of the week. Broker IG anticipated losses in equities and rising oil prices on Sunday, noting that markets could see a highly nervous opening on Monday.

Following the talks, US President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy will prevent all vessels from entering or leaving the strait, he stated on the Truth Social platform. Military forces have also been instructed to intercept any ships that have paid transit fees to Iran. Furthermore, he announced plans to destroy naval mines laid by Iran in the strait, which is vital to the global economy. "As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of military risks, high oil price quotations are likely to remain a persistent drag on global financial markets," commented market analyst Timo Emden of Emden Research.

The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Iran and Oman, is one of the world's most critical shipping routes for the global oil trade. Since the onset of the Iran conflict, Tehran has effectively blocked the strait through threats and the shelling of tankers and cargo ships, driving energy prices higher. This has fueled concerns regarding global economic growth, while investors have scaled back hopes for a more accommodative monetary policy.

President Trump had issued an ultimatum to Iran to restore free navigation, threatening strikes on power plants and other infrastructure. Shortly before the deadline, Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week ceasefire last Wednesday night. This was followed on Saturday by direct negotiations in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, in search of a permanent peace settlement.

However, these talks concluded early Sunday morning without tangible results. It remains unclear if or when further negotiations will take place. Iran blamed the US for the failure of the talks but did not rule out further discussions with Washington. US Vice President JD Vance stated that Iran had failed to accept US terms, adding that the proposal left on the table represents a final offer.

Following the conclusion of the talks, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar urged both parties to uphold their commitment to the ceasefire, stating that Pakistan would continue its role as a mediator.

Emden had warned prior to the start of the talks that many investors could be caught off guard if negotiations failed. "Markets are currently not positioned for a renewed escalation," the expert cautioned.

Asset manager Ortay Gelen of Axia Asset Management advises keeping a close watch on oil price developments. He previously noted that this is no side issue for the Dax. "A crude oil price below 90 US dollars would be a clear signal that inflation fears are easing - this would open up room for interest rate cuts and provide structural support for equities." Conversely, if the price climbs back above 100 dollars due to an escalation, the situation will become precarious.

In the US, inflation rose significantly in March against the backdrop of the Iran conflict. Producer price data due on Tuesday is expected to confirm this trend, according to Robert Greil, Chief Strategist at private bank Merck Finck. Investors will also focus on China, the world's second-largest economy, where first-quarter GDP figures will be released on Thursday alongside March data for industrial production and retail sales.

Furthermore, attention in the coming week will turn to the US corporate sector as earnings season kicks off. "Given that valuations remain high, positive surprises are a must," wrote analyst Samuel Will of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba).

The focus will primarily be on the results of banks and financial services providers such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. While this could trigger price movements for German peers Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, Will noted that significant insights into how rising oil prices are impacting companies are not yet expected from these reports.

Domestically, investors are also looking ahead to analyst events from automakers Mercedes-Benz on Monday and BMW on Tuesday. These sessions aim to align current market expectations for upcoming quarterly figures with reality./la/edh/he

--- By Lutz Alexander and Stefan Heider, dpa-AFX ---