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| This week's gainers and losers |
Tops: Barry Callebaut +20.31%: Cocoa prices have dropped to an eight-month low as demand weakens. Paradoxically, this relieves margin pressure for the Belgian-Swiss chocolatier, which supplies industrial giants like Nestlé and Unilever. If the trend holds, it could help stabilize volumes after several warnings and boost competitiveness in a still-constrained market. Accelleron Industries +22.06%: Following a strong earnings release, the Swiss turbocharger specialist raised its guidance. The company cited favorable momentum in the marine and energy sectors as key growth drivers for the second half. Circle +19.46%: The USDT issuer’s stock jumped again this week. The Genius Act, passed by Congress, is expected to accelerate stablecoin adoption. SAAB +14.31%: The Swedish defense firm beat Q2 expectations and raised full-year guidance. Saab continues to benefit from rising military budgets across Europe. Legrand / ABB +9.77%: The two electrical infrastructure leaders remain on a strong trajectory, buoyed by the AI boom. Their quarterly reports show solid growth, driven by sustained demand in data centers and advanced electrification. Shopify +13.34%: According to the Financial Times, the U.S. e-commerce platform could become a strategic partner to OpenAI. The startup is exploring a payment integration for its AI agent, with Shopify poised to play a key role. Evolution +9.29%: Despite ongoing margin pressure, the Swedish online casino leader posted results in line with expectations, including EBITDA above consensus—a reassuring signal for investors. Flops: Elevance Health -18.66%: The health insurer lowered its full-year outlook. Once seen as a defensive sector, healthcare now faces surging costs, federal cuts, scandals, and record-low visibility. The situation remains challenging. Lifco -10.08%: The Swedish industrial conglomerate missed expectations, with sluggish growth and declining profitability weighing on performance. Publicis -5.57%: The French marketing giant delivered strong Q2 results and raised its organic growth target thanks to new contracts—but markets had priced in even better. Ericsson -6.05%: While EBITDA beat estimates (7.4 billion SEK), revenue came in 6% below forecasts. The miss was poorly received by investors. Abbott Laboratories -6.32%: The group is facing headwinds from falling COVID test sales, rising tariffs, and the end of U.S. foreign aid that supports some global health programs. Despite strong device sales, Q3 guidance came in below expectations. Netflix -2.88%: The streaming giant posted better-than-expected results, mainly due to favorable FX effects. Still, the stock was punished—after a strong run in 2025, the market expected more. |
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| Commodities |
Energy: Oil prices have rebounded in recent days, largely driven by geopolitical tensions and tight supply. Drone attacks in Iraq’s Kurdistan region have disrupted oil production. At the same time, the middle distillates market remains tight, especially in Europe, where diesel inventories have hit their lowest level since January 2024. In the U.S., crude oil stocks dropped by 3.9 million barrels last week, exceeding market expectations. Looking further ahead, OPEC+ continues to gradually reintroduce 2.2 million barrels per day of production through September, which could help rebalance the market mid-term. Brent is holding around $70, while WTI trades near $67.30. Metals: Copper prices rose this week, supported by encouraging U.S. economic data and positive signals from China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal. On the London Metal Exchange, copper climbed to $9,700 per ton. The rally is attributed to stronger U.S. retail sales, highlighting economic resilience, as well as optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade agreement. China’s commerce minister voiced intentions to stabilize trade relations, and announcements of policy support for industrial growth further boosted investor confidence. As for gold, despite a late-week uptick, prices edged lower overall due to solid U.S. economic data and easing concerns about Federal Reserve independence. Still, ongoing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy continues to provide some support for gold prices. Agricultural products: Cocoa prices came under pressure following disappointing Q2 2025 grinding data. Grindings fell 7.2% in Europe, 16.3% in Asia, and 2.78% in North America. This drop in demand led to a roughly 6% decline in cocoa prices this week. In Chicago, wheat remains on a downward trend, with the September 2025 contract trading around 540 cents per bushel. |
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| Macroeconomics |
Macro: U.S. economic indicators released this week are telling a consistent story. So far, tariffs have not triggered a spike in inflation, though it will likely take several more months to assess the full impact. Both economic activity and employment remain resilient despite ongoing uncertainties, helping to fuel the stock market’s rise—along with earnings reports, which have so far avoided major disappointments. Interest rates, while still elevated, are moving in a “neutral” zone—meaning they aren’t weighing heavily on financial markets. The Fed is holding steady, and a pause is widely expected at its upcoming July 30 meeting. In short, markets are comfortably calm—for now. Crypto: Bitcoin broke new ground again this week, surpassing $123,000 for the first time ever on Monday before pulling back slightly to around $119,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract strong inflows, with over $2 billion in net new investments since Monday. These ETFs now hold more than 6.5% of all bitcoins in circulation—valued at over $154 billion, an all-time high. Ether (ETH) delivered a remarkable +22% gain this week, reaching $3,629, though still shy of its late 2021 peak of $4,100. More broadly, the crypto ecosystem is enjoying growing support from U.S. lawmakers. This week, the House of Representatives passed three major crypto-related bills: the GENIUS Act (regulating stablecoins), the CLARITY Act (clarifying the classification of crypto assets), and the Anti-CBDC Act (aimed at blocking a central bank digital currency). While these still face additional legislative steps, unless there’s a last-minute reversal, they mark a major step toward institutional legitimacy—and have boosted investor confidence this week. |
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| Things to read this week | ||||||
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
