By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Nov. 24.
The U.K. autumn budget on Wednesday will take center stage in the week ahead. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax rises to fix the public finances, but specific measures are unclear in the wake of a reported U-turn on income-tax hikes.
In the U.S., uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision in December means markets will be scrutinizing data. It will be a shortened week with Thanksgiving on Thursday, meaning the bond and stock markets are closed that day and close early the following day.
In Asia-Pacific, central-bank decisions in New Zealand and South Korea will be front and center as the region continues to navigate tariff-related uncertainties and market volatility on AI-linked jitters. Markets will also closely watch for India's GDP release for signs of whether domestic momentum remains solid enough to anchor growth expectations, while Tokyo's inflation print will help investors gauge the Bank of Japan's next steps.
U.K.
The U.K. budget on Nov. 26 will be the key focus for investors in "what seems to be the most anticipated U.K. Budget for decades," economists at Investec Economics said in a note. Gilt and sterling investors remain nervous due to uncertainty on the U.K. fiscal policy. The U.K. treasury chief, Rachel Reeves, is likely to deliver a well-balanced budget that restores investor confidence and avoids political unrest, the economists said.
Gilt yields risk staying elevated after the budget due to increased political risk, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. The reported "government's U-turn on hiking income tax shows that the political situation is deteriorating," the economists said. Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts that 10-year gilt yields will rise to 4.650% by the end of 2025. The 10-year gilt yields last trade at 4.542%, Tradeweb data show. The Debt Management Office is due to auction gilts maturing in March 2031 on Tuesday.
U.S.
Key U.S. releases include September retail sales and food services on Tuesday and September durable goods data on Wednesday. Both were delayed by the recent government shutdown and were initially due in October.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has rescheduled two releases originally due to be published in the coming week after the recent shutdown. Its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product growth, originally scheduled for Wednesday, will be rescheduled for a later date. It will also delay October data on personal income and spending, initially due Wednesday.
Weekly jobless claims data on Wednesday might take on more importance after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it won't publish the full October nonfarm payrolls report and the November report won't be released until Dec. 16, six days after the Fed's meeting.
The Fed's Beige Book, or summary of current economic conditions, is also due Wednesday.
Other data include producer prices, pending home sales, the Conference Board's consumer confidence and Case-Shiller September home-price index on Tuesday, followed by new home sales on Wednesday.
No data are due on Thursday, due to the Thanksgiving holiday, or the day after.
The Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Monday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Tuesday, and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Wednesday.
Canada
Canada's main event is third-quarter gross domestic product data on Friday. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its last decision in October. It said if inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with its projections, the current policy rate is "at about the right level." However, it remains willing to act if the outlook changes and is closely monitoring coming data.
?Eurozone
?Germany's November Ifo business-sentiment index will kick off the week's heavy data flows on Monday, followed by Germany's detailed breakdown of third-quarter GDP on Tuesday.
The incoming data will provide new insights into the resilience of the eurozone business and consumer sentiment, as well as likely affirm that the European Central Bank remains in a "good place" without any immediate need to cut interest rates further.
France's November consumer confidence survey is due on Tuesday. Germany's GfK consumer climate survey is scheduled for Thursday, along with November consumer and business confidence surveys from Italy and the eurozone. French consumer spending data for October is due on Friday. The ECB will release a consumer expectations survey on Friday.
Flash estimate inflation data for November from France, Spain, Italy and Germany are due on Friday, alongside German unemployment data for November.
Eurozone money supply data are due on Thursday and the ECB will publish accounts of its October policy meeting on Thursday.
Germany will tap the October 2030-dated Bobl on Tuesday and the August 2035-dated Bund on Wednesday. Italy will also have two auctions, to be held on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The Netherlands will have an auction for the January 2056 DSL on Tuesday.
Mexico
Inflation data for the first half of November will be released on Monday, potentially providing clues on the path of future interest rates. The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points earlier this month but sounded cautious about further easing, pointing to sticky core inflation.
Mexico retail sales data for September are also due on Tuesday. October trade balance data will be released on Thursday followed by October unemployment data Friday.
Sweden
On the economic calendar in Sweden, October foreign trade and November consumer confidence data will be released on Thursday. This will be followed by October retail sales and third-quarter economic growth data on Friday. The Riksbank has indicated that it is finished cutting interest rates, saying the economy is on its way to recovery. However, the outlook for inflation and economic activity is uncertain with risks in both Sweden and abroad that could affect economic developments and the policy rate, it said in its November policy statement.
Sweden's National Debt Office will publish a borrowing review on Thursday.
Norway
In Norway, October unemployment figures are due on Thursday and October retail sales data will be published Friday. The Norges Bank said earlier this month at its policy meeting that the economic outlook is uncertain. However, if the economy evolves broadly as envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year.
Norway will conduct a bond auction Wednesday.
Switzerland
Switzerland's third-quarter economic growth data will be released Friday. It comes after the U.S. and Switzerland agreeing to a deal that lowers U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods, but this won't be reflected in the data.
Japan
A speech by Bank of Japan policy board member Asahi Noguchi on Thursday in Oita will draw close attention, as investors continue to look for any hints on the timing of the bank's next interest-rate increase.
On Friday, Tokyo's November consumer-price index excluding volatile fresh food is expected to rise 2.7% from a year earlier, slightly softer than October's 2.8% reading. Consumer inflation in Japan's capital will be closely watched by investors, as it is considered an early indicator of nationwide trends.
"With inflation excluding fresh food and energy remaining above 3%, it won't be long before the Bank of Japan resumes its tightening cycle," Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said.
Industrial production, retail sales and employment figures for October are also due Friday. Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a national holiday.
Australia / New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to deliver another 25-basis-point cut as policymakers work to set the stage for a 2026 recovery. Economists don't expect the RBNZ to repeat its jumbo-sized 50-basis-point cut announced in October.
They are instead forecasting a more modest quarter-point reduction, with policymakers likely to leave the door open to more cuts, especially if there is a shock to the global economy in the near future.
Another reduction in the official cash rate would extend total easing to 275 basis points from mid-2024. The economy has responded sluggishly to the rate cuts so far, with the pass-through to lower mortgage lending rates taking place at a slower pace than expected.
The RBNZ's recent household and business surveys showed inflation expectations are either drifting lower or remaining stable for the fourth quarter. Mean inflation expectations for households across the one-, two-, and five-year horizons were down slightly, indicating there is not much preventing the central bank from delivering more rate reductions.
In Australia, the first monthly CPI release for October is due Wednesday. Softer electricity and fuel prices are likely to have been key drivers for a decline, though economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to interpret the results with caution, given the volatility of monthly data as well as adjustment issues with new data sets.
China
A quiet week awaits in China, with industrial profit data for October the sole release of note. Markets will watch the numbers on Thursday to see if the run of strength in profits continued after a sharp rise in September and a stronger-than-expected increase in August.
The impact of government efforts to reduce excess capacity will also be scrutinized.
In the first nine months of the year, industrial profits were up 3.2%, which officials attributed to government measures promoting technological innovation and a favorable comparison base.
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11-23-25 1614ET
