There's a sense of unease in the market, fueled by a striking revelation at its core : major American chip companies have agreed to hand over 15% of revenue from sales of their most advanced computer chips to China directly to the U.S. government. This isn't a fine or a tax in the usual sense—it looks like a tithe, an extraction that smacks of the kind of tribute empires once demanded from vassal states.

The ostensible goal? To preserve Washington's leverage in its high-tech cold war with Beijing. But the mechanism is telling. The government isn't just regulating exports, it's cutting itself into the profits. For Nvidia, AMD, and peers, acquiescence is the price of admission into a market they cannot afford to abandon. 

Technology firms are being pulled into the machinery of statecraft, their balance sheets and R&D roadmaps shaped by national security imperatives as much as shareholder value. Commodities markets are revealing the fragility of supply chains that still depend on a few dominant producers. Monetary policy, once the preserve of technocrats, is now a live wire for equity traders hanging on every macro datapoint.

On Monday morning, futures still ticked upward—Dow up 0.3%, S&P 500 0.2%, Nasdaq 0.1%—a polite nod to optimism without the chest-thumping of last week's rally.

The arrangement arrives on the eve of new sector-specific tariffs, part of a broader reset in trade relations under President Trump. The administration's calculus is straightforward: higher prices and frayed supply chains are tolerable collateral damage if they help relocate manufacturing to U.S. soil. Markets, for now, are treading water. But traders understand that tariffs are not just economic levers—they're political theater. The timing, just before a high-profile meeting between Trump and Intel's CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, underscores how policy announcements and corporate courtship can blur into a single performance.

If semiconductors are the nervous system of modern industry, lithium is its bloodstream. The news that China's CATL has halted output at a major mine sent lithium stocks surging—Albemarle up 11%, Lithium Americas up 8.2%—on hopes that the pause might relieve a glut that has battered prices. China's dominance in battery supply chains is so absolute that a single operational hiccup can jolt global valuations. For investors, lithium's rebound is a speculative thrill. For policymakers, it's another flashing warning light about resource dependence.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve hovers in the background, its trajectory as important as any White House tariff list. Signs of labor market weakness and recent leadership changes have fueled bets on a dovish turn—60 basis points of rate cuts by December, if futures markets are to be believed. Tuesday's consumer inflation report will either embolden those wagers or send them scurrying. We're also awaiting producer prices and retail sales figures. These come amid controversy over the reliability of the data, less than two weeks after Donald Trump fired the head of the main US statistics agency following a massive revision of previous employment figures.

As we approach the middle of August, investors are relieved of a certain burden, as mid-year corporate results lack the bitter aftertaste of recession. The picture is almost complete, with 85-90% of large listed companies having published their results. It shows that these companies have comfortably exceeded earnings expectations and have done rather well in terms of revenue. Analysts had been careful to temper their enthusiasm beforehand, which reinforced the positive impression. US companies have exceeded projections for both sales and profits the most. The market's verdict on the numbers is clear: "Tariffs haven't strangled business." And that's enough for the market to look upwards, especially as it is still buzzing with excitement about the promises of artificial intelligence. This huge investment machine has relegated the oil industry, the most capital-intensive industry of recent decades, to a meagre share of spending.

Leaving aside corporate results, a few issues remain hot, foremost among them geopolitics. Donald Trump is set to meet Vladimir Putin in Alaska on 15 August to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. He is prepared to make concessions to the Kremlin to achieve this, especially since these concessions will be made by others: probably the annexation of part of Ukrainian territory to Russia. European and Ukrainian leaders are not happy. But they will find it difficult to change the situation. US Vice President JD Vance summed up the situation clearly. ‘It won't make anyone really happy. Both Russians and Ukrainians will probably end up unhappy with the deal,' he lucidly conceded. It is said that a good compromise must frustrate both sides. But in the world of boxing, we would probably talk about a points victory for Russia at the end of the fight.

In other news, the entire crypto industry is on fire after the establishment of a new favourable framework in the United States. On the corporate calendar, which is looking rather sparse, a few names stand out, notably Cisco, Tencent, Applied Materials and Deere.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan is closed today for a bank holiday. Australia was up 0.3%, while India and Hong Kong were slightly up. South Korea is showing some signs of weakness at the end of the day. Indices are mixed in Europe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 remaining flat.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,480
  • Gold: $3,345
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.92 (WTI) $64.23
  • United States 10 years: 4.24%
  • BITCOIN: $119,600

In corporate news:

  • Intel CEO to visit the White House amid speculation on government involvement.
  • Engine Capital acquires a stake in Avantor Inc., urging a sale or restructuring.
  • Paramount will pay TKO Group Holdings $7.7 billion over seven years to become the exclusive U.S. broadcaster of UFC events starting in 2026, streaming all matches on Paramount+ and select ones on CBS at no extra cost to viewers.
  • HRC World will begin trading on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market on August 26, alongside its Nasdaq Copenhagen listing, to expand visibility and support its data center business growth.
  • Micron Technology raised its Q4 revenue forecast to $11.2 billion and adjusted EPS outlook to $2.85 on strong AI-driven memory chip demand, sending shares up around 5–6% premarket.
  • Nvidia and AMD agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from advanced AI chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses, a rare deal expected to dent gross margins.
  • DuPont de Nemours’ electronics unit Qnity Electronics plans a $2.5 billion notes offering ahead of its planned November 1 spin-off, with proceeds funding a distribution to DuPont and other obligations.
  • Air India will suspend direct Delhi–Washington, D.C. flights from September 1 due to aircraft shortages from planned Boeing upgrades and Pakistan’s ongoing airspace closure.
  • Biogen and Stoke Therapeutics dosed the first patient in a Phase 3 trial of zorevunersen for Dravet syndrome, evaluating seizure reduction and cognitive outcomes over a year.
  • Mastercard partnered with Dubai’s IFZA and Global Tax Assistant to launch an AI-powered business registration platform in the UAE to support SME growth in regional markets.
  • AECOM was appointed project management consultant for Phase 2 of Shomoul Holding’s The Avenues Riyadh mixed-use development in Saudi Arabia.
  • A consortium including BHP Group, Chevron, and several steelmakers launched a pre-feasibility study on large-scale carbon capture and storage hubs in Asia, to conclude by end-2026.
  • Builders FirstSource will add a dual listing on NYSE Texas while keeping its primary NYSE listing.
  • Monday.com posted Q2 revenue of $299 million, beating estimates, and guided Q3 revenue to $311–313 million, but shares fell over 18% premarket.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Adobe Inc.: Melius Research LLC downgrades to sell from hold with a target price reduced from USD 400 to USD 310.
  • Airbnb, Inc.: DBS Bank upgrades to buy from suspended coverage with a target price of USD 165. 
  • Coinbase Global, Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd upgrades to add from buy with a target price of USD 330.
  • Eli Lilly And Company: DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to buy from hold with a price target reduced from USD 887 to USD 799.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight with a price target reduced from USD 54 to USD 48.
  • Generac Holdings, Inc.: Jefferies upgrades to hold from underperform with a price target raised from USD 150 to USD 200.
  • The Trade Desk, Inc.: HSBC downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from USD 84 to USD 56.
  • Walt Disney Company (The): DBS Bank upgrades to buy from suspended coverage with a target price of USD 135.
  • Cognex Corporation: HSBC maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from 31 to USD 47.
  • Coreweave, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from 66 to USD 135.
  • Elanco Animal Health Incorporated: Piper Sandler & Co maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 12 to USD 18.
  • Epam Systems, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 230 to USD 180.
  • Idexx Laboratories, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 510 to USD 700.
  • Lululemon Athletica Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from 340 to USD 260.
  • Lyft, Inc.: Susquehanna maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 18 to USD 14.
  • Match Group, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 33 to USD 45.
  • Synopsys, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 540 to USD 715.
  • Tapestry, Inc.: Evercore ISI maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 97 to USD 130.
  • Unity Software Inc.: SPDB International Holdings Ltd maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 27 to USD 37.