After weeks of anxiety over energy supplies, inflation, and the risk of a wider regional conflict, investors are seizing on signals from Washington and Tehran that suggest both sides may be looking for a way to stop. Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have indicated that the conflict could be nearing an end. Iran's president, Massoud Pezeshkian, has also signaled openness to ending the war, provided there are guarantees against renewed attacks.

The coming week will now revolve around two big questions. First, is this de-escalation real? Second, even if the shooting slows down, what damage has already been done to the global economy?

Markets are acting as though a little diplomatic oxygen could solve everything, but some of the consequences of this conflict may linger well beyond any ceasefire headline. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most important oil chokepoints, and even a partial disruption will be very detrimental to the world's economies. Oil prices have slipped on Wednesday, down about 3%, but they are still elevated after surging since the war began in late February.

Yesterday's rallye was dramatic: the Nasdaq 100 and Russel 2000 jumped 3.4%, while the S&P 500 rose 2.9% and the Dow added 2.5%. The gain was powered by high-beta stocks, especially technology names and beaten-down shares that had taken the worst hits in recent weeks. That's a pattern we've seen before: when fear recedes, even slightly, the most battered corners of the market often spring back first.

Looking back at March, however, it's clear the month was rough. The S&P 500 fell 5.1% over the month and is down 4.6% for the year. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 4.9% in March and is down 6% since January. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 lost 8% during the month and is slightly negative for the year. Emerging markets were hit even harder, down 13.3% over one month. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose 41.6% in March and is up 70% year to date. Gold, oddly enough, fell sharply over the month, though it remains up for the year.

After a month like that, the market was ready to grab any excuse to exhale. After all, the White House has every reason to want a face-saving exit. That can take a polished form - declaring that the main military goals have already been achieved - or a more blunt one: America did what it needed to do, and now the rest of the world can help clean up the mess. Crude? Yes. Effective? Possibly.

There is a certain cold realism to that argument. Europe, Asia, and Gulf states are more directly exposed than the United States to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil and gas flows. If the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, those economies may feel it faster and harder. Reports that the United Arab Emirates has already been lobbying allies to help secure the strait fit neatly into this picture. So does the likely domestic political message in the U.S.: America acted, the troops will not be stuck there indefinitely, and someone else can handle the plumbing.

Still, markets should be careful not to confuse political messaging with strategic resolution. Trump's talk of ending the war within two to three weeks may reassure some investors, but deadlines like that have a way of floating free from reality. The region remains deeply unstable. A halt to U.S. bombing alone would not magically restore trust, security, or shipping flows. And even if oil transit improves, it may take time before energy prices return to anything like normal.

Markets seem to understand at least some of this. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, has fallen to a little over a one-week low, but oil is still high.

Meanwhile, this week is not only about geopolitics. Just released, the ADP report showed that U.S. private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, ahead of expectations for 40,000. That is better than feared, but hardly a picture of runaway strength. For the economy, it suggests hiring is still happening, just at a restrained pace. For the Fed, this is not weak enough to demand urgent rate cuts, and not strong enough to revive fears of an overheated labor market. Investors also have to digest a fresh batch of economic data, including retail sales, and business activity surveys. Friday's March private payrolls report is especially important, even though U.S. markets will be closed for Good Friday. Comments from Fed officials Alberto Musalem and Michael Barr will also be a focus, because every data point now lands in a changed policy landscape: a softer war outlook, yes, but still-sticky energy risk.

In corporate news, Nike startled investors with weak guidance and saw its shares drop 11% in premarket trading. RH fell even harder (18%) after disappointing on revenue and offering a weaker-than-expected growth outlook.

Overseas, the relief rally is even more dramatic. South Korea surged 9%. Japan climbed roughly 5%. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, and India also moved sharply higher. Europe is following the same pattern. The logic is obvious: economies more exposed to global trade and energy flows have even more reason to welcome signs that the conflict may cool and the Strait of Hormuz may reopen more reliably.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99.600
  • Gold: $4,719
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $102.64 (WTI) $99.51
  • United States 10 years: 4.28%
  • BITCOIN: $68,528

In corporate news:

  • Microsoft plans to invest $5.5 billion in Singapore in cloud, AI infrastructure, and operations between 2025 and 2029, while also offering free Microsoft 365 Premium with Copilot to tertiary students.
  • Anthropic reportedly accidentally released some internal source code for Claude Code due to a packaging error, saying no customer data or credentials were exposed.
  • Rovi completed its acquisition of a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in Arizona from Bristol-Myers Squibb, with its subsidiary set to keep producing for BMS under a toll manufacturing agreement.
  • XPeng said March deliveries rose to 27,415 vehicles, up 80% sequentially, bringing first-quarter deliveries to 62,682 vehicles.
  • Nvidia's share of China's AI accelerator server market reportedly fell to 55% in 2025 as domestic players led by Huawei captured about 41% of shipments.
  • Li Auto delivered 41,053 vehicles in March and said it expects to launch the Li L9 in the second quarter.
  • Nike shares fell sharply after the company forecast a fourth-quarter sales decline, citing weakness in China and slower-than-expected progress in clearing old inventory.
  • Coca-Cola plans to invest $1.05 billion in South Africa through 2030 to expand production capacity, strengthen distribution, and support innovation.
  • SpaceX is reportedly working with at least 21 banks on a planned IPO that could value the company at about $1.75 trillion, although the plans may still change.
  • Tesla's March registrations surged across several key European markets, including France, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark, in another sign of improving regional sales momentum.
  • Shionogi completed the purchase of Pfizer's stake in GSK's ViiV Healthcare, increasing its interest in the HIV-focused joint venture to 22%.
  • Versigent completed its separation from Aptiv and began trading independently on the NYSE, targeting revenue growth and margin expansion over the next three years.
  • Brookfield Wealth Solutions completed its $3.2 billion acquisition of UK retirement services provider Just Group.
  • OpenAI raised $122 billion in a funding round valuing the company at $852 billion, with backing from investors including Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank.
  • Baidu faced scrutiny after several Apollo Go robotaxis reportedly stalled in Wuhan due to a system failure, though no injuries were reported.
  • Chevron took final investment decision on the Aseng gas project in Equatorial Guinea.
  • Laplace Renewable Energy said it has not received the reported Tesla solar project order and warned investors about risks linked to overheated market sentiment.
  • Microsoft is in talks with Chevron and Engine No. 1 over a $7bn power plant in Texas, according to Bloomberg.
  • Eli Lilly is set to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8bn.
  • Oracle is cutting thousands of jobs to fund its shift towards AI.
  • AT&T has committed to investing up to $2bn to modernise its emergency cellular network, according to the WSJ.
  • Snap jumped 14% yesterday after Irenic Capital Management took a stake in the company.OpenAI raises $122bn and moves closer to an IPO.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Bank Of America Corporation: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold and reduces the target price from USD 57 to USD 55.
  • Colgate-Palmolive Company: TD Cowen downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 96 to USD 85.
  • First Citizens Bancshares, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 2450 to USD 2200.
  • Pjt Partners Inc.: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 158 to USD 170.
  • Ppg Industries, Inc.: Citi downgrades to neutral from buy and reduces the target price from USD 132 to USD 113.
  • Unitedhealth Group Inc.: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 330.
  • Walt Disney Company (The): Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 115.
  • Wells Fargo & Company: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold and reduces the target price from USD 104 to USD 94.
  • Adobe Inc.: Phillip Securities maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 487 to USD 368.
  • Antero Resources Corporation: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 40 to USD 50.
  • Atlassian Corporation: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 170 to USD 130.
  • Chevron Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 168 to USD 214.
  • Constellation Energy Corporation: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 417 to USD 321.
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 145 to USD 175.
  • Factset Research Systems, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 305 to USD 225.
  • Mastec, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 260 to USD 340.
  • Mccormick & Company, Incorporated: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 81 to USD 64.
  • Oracle Corporation: Phillip Securities maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 344 to USD 275.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its sell recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 90 to USD 70.
  • Stifel Financial Corp.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 151 to USD 88.
  • Td Synnex Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 174 to USD 218.
  • Vornado Realty Trust: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 36 to USD 28.
  • Western Alliance Bancorporation: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 105 to USD 77.