Is Donald Trump ready to put pressure on Russia? After months of giving Vladimir Putin the upper hand, the US president seems to be losing patience with the lack of progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. He who presents himself as a peacemaker and promised in his campaign to end the conflict "in 24 hours."
Secondary tariffs
In an attempt to make progress, the US president has therefore resorted to his favorite weapon: customs duties. On July 14, he set a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the conflict. Why 50 days? We don't know. All we know is that he is the one setting the timetable. He reiterated this yesterday aboard Air Force One, reducing the deadline to "10 days from today."
As trade between Russia and the US is very limited, Donald Trump's threat is to impose secondary tariffs, in other words to tax countries that buy Russian products, particularly oil, which is the main source of revenue for the Russian state.
These tariffs could be set at up to 100%. In Congress, a majority of senators even support an even tougher measure. Eighty-five senators back a bill that would impose tariffs of 500% on countries buying oil, gas, uranium, and other Russian exports.
China in the crosshairs
This issue was also on the agenda during talks between the US and China in Stockholm earlier this week. China is Russia's largest buyer of oil, importing around 2 million barrels per day out of the 7 million barrels exported by Russia.
Scott Bessent warned Chinese negotiators that continuing to buy Russian oil under sanctions would expose China to heavy tariffs. "Anyone who buys Russian oil under sanctions should be prepared for that," the US Treasury Secretary warned at a press conference.
But Chinese officials reiterated that China is a sovereign nation with its own energy needs, and that its oil purchases are a matter of domestic policy, Bessent explained. "The Chinese take their sovereignty very seriously. We don't want to undermine their sovereignty, so they prefer to pay a 100% tax."
Foreign policy vs. domestic issues
In any case, these threats have pushed oil prices to their highest level in a month: Brent crude is now trading at around $72 a barrel.
The trade agreements announced in recent days, which point to a reduction in uncertainty and therefore better growth prospects, have also supported prices.
Yesterday, the IMF raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The institution now expects global growth of 3.0% for this year and 3.1% in 2026, compared with its April projections of 2.8% and 3.0% respectively.
While OPEC+ has additional capacity and the US administration could lift sanctions against Venezuela, secondary tariffs of 100% on Russian oil buyers would nevertheless be "a shock to the system," to use the words of the ING team.
Sanctioning Russian oil would therefore result in a sharp rise in prices. This is a rather uncomfortable position for Donald Trump, who is brandishing this threat while promising Americans lower energy prices.
