I thought I was going to have to write about the usual topics today: a few corporate updates, the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, and another round of arguments about whether artificial intelligence is still worth the money being thrown at it. Instead, Donald Trump went to Ankara and gave me plenty of fresh material to write about. Thank you, Donald, for never letting the market columnist's job get too quiet.

The immediate shock came from Iran. Speaking ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump said the memorandum of understanding meant to end the conflict was "over" and made clear he had little interest in more talks with Tehran. That was enough to jolt markets out of their fragile calm. Oil prices jumped by more than 6%, tankers reportedly turned back from the Strait of Hormuz, and investors were forced to think again about what would happen if the world's most important oil chokepoint remained closed for the foreseeable future.

Energy stocks rallied, airlines and cruise operators fell, and inflation worries slipped back into the room. By revoking Iran's temporary oil waiver, Washington removed one of Tehran's incentives to keep a lid on the crisis. Add fresh U.S. strikes, Iranian attacks on American military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, and renewed disruption around Hormuz, and the story quickly moves from the battlefield to the oil market, then straight to the Fed's inbox.

Today's other major event is the release of the minutes from the Fed's June meeting, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. Before this latest escalation, investors were already trying to work out whether the central bank was more worried about growth or inflation. Now the Fed faces the kind of problem central bankers dislike most: an energy shock that can lift prices while hurting demand.

The political setting makes it even messier. NATO's summit in Ankara was supposed to show that the alliance was adapting to a world in which Europe spends more on defense and produces more of its own weapons. Last year in The Hague, NATO members pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. This year, the emphasis is on industrial capacity: shells, missiles, air defenses, aircraft, and the supply chains needed to produce them at scale. Defence stocks had already priced in much of that story, especially in Europe. The summit is now less about surprising investors and more about confirming that the rearmament cycle is real.

Trump, however, has a gift for turning alliance management into a stress test. He signalled openness to bringing Turkey back into the F-35 fighter-jet programme, a move that would please Ankara and potentially reshape part of the defense-industrial conversation. At the same time, he used the summit to criticize European allies for not backing him during the war with Iran. He renewed his demand over Greenland, prompting Denmark to repeat the obvious but apparently still necessary point that Greenland is not for sale. He also singled out Spain as a poor NATO partner and threatened trade retaliation.

For markets, the problem is not that any one of these remarks is entirely new. Trump has long treated NATO as both a security alliance and a billing department. The problem is the accumulation: Iran raises oil prices, Greenland raises questions about U.S. relations with its own allies, Spain raises the possibility of fresh trade friction inside the Western bloc, Turkey raises defense and procurement questions. Put them together and the summit becomes less a diplomatic event than a live demonstration of political volatility.

This is arriving at an awkward moment for equities. The technology trade, which carried much of the market's confidence this year, has started to look more selective. Semiconductors remain the clear winners of 2026, with the SOX index still up sharply since January. But the group has lost momentum since late June, and Samsung's latest update reminded investors that even spectacular profits can disappoint when expectations have already moved into the penthouse.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 101.128
  • Gold: 4,053
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $78.68 (WTI) $74.69
  • United States 10 years: 4.58%
  • BITCOIN: 62,022

In corporate news:

  • Apple loses court battle over iOS and App Store under the EU's Digital Markets Act.
  • Amazon supports weekly humanitarian relief flights to Venezuela in a first-of-its-kind collaboration.
  • Visa to announce fiscal third quarter 2026 financial results on July 28, 2026.
  • Chevron offers rival drillers its chemical technology to boost shale oil output.
  • T-Mobile US obtains European approval for its joint acquisition of Greenlight and Future Fiber.
  • Netflix, Walt Disney and YouTube eye FIFA World Cup US media rights valued up to $2 billion.
  • OpenAI announces the public launch on Thursday of its new AI model, GPT-5.6.
  • Netflix signs agreements with media companies to stream their videos.
  • T-Mobile US appoints a new head of its Enterprise division.
  • BlackRock and Stonepeak are considering the acquisition of a Brazilian port valued at $5 billion.
  • Prologis and NBIM Nerva have received the green light from the European Commission to acquire a logistics asset in Germany.
  • Lockheed Martin has secured contracts worth $607.4 million from the US Department of Defence.
  • Enterprise Products Partners has raised its quarterly distribution to $0.56 per unit from $0.55, payable on 14 August.
  • The IPO of SK Hynix on the Nasdaq has been oversubscribed several times over.

Today's key earnings releases: Costco Wholesale, Unite, Pennon

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Alcoa: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 79 to USD 53.
  • Apple Inc.: CTBC Securities Investment Service Co LTD downgrades to add from buy and raises the target price from USD 335 to USD 355.
  • Cincinnati Financial Corporation: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to market perform from outperform and raises the target price from USD 191 to USD 201.
  • Cloudflare, Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Dollar Tree, Inc.: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 140.
  • Globant S.a.: Itau BBA Securities downgrades to market perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 68 to USD 39.
  • Jbs N.v.: Grupo Santander downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 17 to USD 15.20.
  • Pilgrim's Pride Corporation: Grupo Santander downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 56 to USD 37.50.
  • The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to market perform from outperform and raises the target price from USD 211 to USD 220.
  • The Travelers Companies, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to market perform from outperform and raises the target price from USD 342 to USD 356.
  • Versigent Plc: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 38 to USD 50.
  • Qualcomm Incorporated: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 200 to USD 314.
  • Raymond James Financial, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 147 to USD 180.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Compass Point Research & Trading maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 107 to USD 130.
  • Versigent Plc: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 38 to USD 50.