Last Monday, analysts expected a volatile week for global markets, packed with corporate earnings and key economic data. That prediction mostly missed the mark - until Friday. A late-week sell-off brought sharp losses, marking the steepest weekly drop in 17 weeks for the European Stoxx 600 and 10 weeks for the U.S. S&P 500.

Cyclicals were hit hardest, dragging France’s CAC 40 down 2.9%, while even defensive sectors like banking offered little protection. In the U.S., the sell-off was broad-based, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.6% and the Nasdaq tumbling 2.2%. Unlike past sessions, there was no late-day rebound - selling pressure dominated from open to close.

The trigger was the release of the near-final list of U.S. tariffs set to take effect Friday. While largely expected, the scope raised concerns: major trading partners - including Canada, Brazil, India, and Switzerland - face steep duties after failing to strike deals with Washington. Tensions with China remain unresolved, fueling uncertainty around global trade.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. economic signals turned mixed. Inflation is edging higher, reducing hopes for aggressive rate cuts, while July’s labor report disappointed sharply. Job creation fell well short of expectations, and prior months’ numbers were revised lower, challenging the “strong labor market” narrative. That weakness helped keep Wall Street in the red Friday.

The fallout wasn’t just market-driven. President Trump dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accusing her of manipulating data—a move that sparked criticism over politicizing official figures. The White House countered that data reliability has long been an issue for policymakers.

Markets, however, focused on rate implications. FedWatch now shows odds of a September cut above 80%, up from below 50% after the Fed’s July 28 decision. Investors recall 2024, when rising unemployment prompted the Fed to slash rates aggressively, including two 50-basis-point cuts in September. The “bad news is good news” playbook is back: weak jobs data boosts the case for easing.

Other news to know to start the week off right:

  • OPEC+ will add 547,000 barrels per day in September, pushing Brent crude below $70.

  • Governor Adriana Kugler resigned Friday to return to academia, giving Trump a chance to nominate an ally.

  • Trump ordered two nuclear submarines deployed following provocative comments by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, sending gold prices higher.

  • Trump and Mark Carney are expected to meet soon as Canada faces steep U.S. tariffs amid stalled negotiations.

  • Another busy week ahead with U.S. heavyweights like Palantir, AMD, Walt Disney, Eli Lilly, and Costco reporting, alongside European players including BP, Siemens Energy, Allianz, Commerzbank, and Infineon.

  • The U.K.’s Bank of England announces its rate decision Thursday. U.S. tariff measures take effect Friday, leaving room for more twists.

Despite Friday’s rout in the West, most Asian markets were resilient. Japan fell 1.4%, while China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and India posted gains. Australia edged lower. Switzerland’s market was closed Friday, sparing it from immediate fallout after Washington imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss goods.

Today's economic highlights:

US factory orders for June will be published at 10:00 a.m. See the full agenda here.

  • USD/GBP: 0.7517 GBP
  • Bund/OAT spread: 675 points (+2.3%)
  • VIX: 20.4 (+3.7%)
  • Gold ounce: 3368 USD
  • Brent: $68.05
  • 10-year US: 4.245%
  • Bitcoin: $114,394

In corporate news:

  • Amphenol is about to finalize a deal to acquire the connectivity and cable division of communication network infrastructure provider CommScope Holding in a transaction valued at around 10 billion dollars, including debt, according to the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, citing sources close to the matter. CommScope’s stock jumped more than 45% in pre-market trading.
  • Berkshire Hathaway announced on Saturday that it recorded 3.76 billion dollars (3.25 billion euros) in asset impairments related to its stake in Kraft Heinz and reported a decline in quarterly operating profit due to lower insurance premiums.
  • Boeing – The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), representing employees assembling Boeing fighter jets in the Saint Louis area, rejected the company’s latest contract offer on Sunday and plans to strike starting Monday at midnight.
  • Spotify announced Monday that it will raise the monthly price of its premium individual subscription in certain markets starting in September as the Swedish streaming giant seeks to improve its margins.
  • Tesla granted its CEO Elon Musk 96 million shares worth about 29 billion dollars, a decision aimed at keeping the billionaire entrepreneur at the helm of the company as he contests a court ruling that invalidated his original pay package, deemed unfair to shareholders.
  • Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern – U.S. railroad customer associations have asked regulators to block or impose significant conditions on the proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
  • Walmart – Walmex, the U.S. retailer’s subsidiary, announced Friday, in a surprise move, that Ignacio Caride, the CEO for Mexico and Central America, will step down after a little over a year leading the subsidiary.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Air Products & Chemicals : Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 355 to USD 345.
  • American Tower : Argus Research Company maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 245 to USD 230.
  • Apple : New Street Research maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 215 to USD 220.
  • Block : Monness Crespi Hardt maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 75 to USD 95.
  • Capital One Financial : Autonomous Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 255 to USD 260.
  • Cincinnati Financial : Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 167 to USD 168.
  • Cnh Industrial : D.A. Davidson maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 12.50 to USD 13.
  • Confluent : Citigroup remains neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 30 to USD 20.
  • Eastman Chemical : Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 115 to USD 73.
  • Lyondellbasell Industries : Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 65 to USD 58.
  • Masco : Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 69 to USD 71.
  • Oshkosh : D.A. Davidson maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 111 to USD 160. 
  • Rbc Bearings : Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 480 to USD 500.
  • Robinhood Markets : Compass Point Research & Trading maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 96 to USD 105.
  • Rocket Companies : Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from USD 14 to USD 15. 
  • S&P Global : Argus Research Company maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 570 to USD 590.
  • The Timken : Oxcap Analytics maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 61.
  • Vulcan Materials : BNP Paribas Exane maintains a neutral recommendation with a target price raised from USD 255.50 to USD 263.
  • Walt Disney : Evercore ISI maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 134 to USD 140.
  • Wynn Resorts : Susquehanna maintains a positive recommendation with a target price raised from USD 100 to USD 124.
  • Xylem : Argus Research Company maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 145 to USD 165.