It's hard to think of another figure who can generate such market whiplash with such economy of language. One day, he threatens to upend global supply chains, the next, he reassures the world that hurting China isn't really the plan. Futures, obedient as ever, fell in line: Dow up 0.7%, S&P 500 up 1.1%, Nasdaq up 1.6%. Sentiment, an invisible force more powerful than tariffs, has shifted.

On Friday, when the US response to China's restrictions on rare earth exports was announced, investors sold off technology and cyclical stocks left, right and centre, huddling together with defensive shares. On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 took the biggest hit, closing down 3.49%.

This oscillation between menace and comfort has become a defining feature of the current economic landscape. Beijing, having tightened export controls on rare earths critical to semiconductor production, blamed Washington for the escalation but held back further retaliation. A potential meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart remains penciled in for later this month - unless, of course, it isn't. The meeting's existence now depends less on diplomatic scheduling than on presidential temperament.

Meanwhile, the United States finds itself in the thirteenth day of a government shutdown, with official economic data releases delayed. The absence of information has turned markets into avid interpreters of tone, parsing the subtext of each presidential statement as if reading tea leaves. In place of the usual stream of payroll reports and inflation numbers, traders now have Trump's posts as their primary leading indicator.

Beneath the surface drama, the real economy carries on. Third-quarter earnings season begins this week, led by the banking giants: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Analysts expect earnings growth of 8.8% year-on-year, a respectable figure but lower than last quarter's 13.8%. These results will provide something firmer to hold onto than presidential improvisation: actual numbers. With government data delayed, corporate earnings have become the market's proxy for economic reality.

The underlying optimism remains intact. AI enthusiasm and the prospect of rate cuts continue to buoy markets, giving investors a reason to treat trade flare-ups as passing squalls rather than approaching storms. Semiconductor stocks illustrate the dynamic perfectly. Nvidia and its peers slid on Friday amid tariff fears, then rallied Monday after the conciliatory weekend post. Supply chains did not rearrange themselves in those 48 hours; only expectations did.

When the president reignited the trade war on Friday by announcing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1st, American rare earth mining companies became unexpected stars of the premarket show. Shares of Critical Metals jumped more than 19%, USA Rare Earth surged 23% and MP Materials climbed nearly 8%.

The technology sector was set for a rebound Monday. Qualcomm found itself in a particular bind: Beijing revealed over the weekend that the company had failed to notify regulators when finalizing its acquisition of Israeli firm Autotalks in June. The response was swift, an antitrust investigation and a 7.3% plunge in Qualcomm's stock. Monday promised a watchful reopening for the chip sector, with traders scrutinizing not just price movements but regulatory mood music on both sides of the Pacific. The sector's sensitivity to every policy tremor is now acute, tariffs and investigations have become as market-moving as earnings, sometimes more so.

Beyond tech, the corporate landscape on Monday looked like a carefully shuffled deck of ambition, litigation, and strategic repositioning. Exxon Mobil's CEO Darren Woods warned of a tightening oil market in the medium to long term, particularly without fresh investment in unconventional assets. Warner Bros Discovery turned down Paramount Skydance's takeover offer, deeming it insufficient, while J.P. Morgan launched a $1.5 trillion investment plan aimed at shoring up America's defense, energy, and advanced manufacturing sectors. Meanwhile, Blackstone mulled a possible bid for Big Yellow Group while offloading U.K. logistics assets to Tritax Big Box for £1.04 billion.

Elsewhere, gold and silver touched record highs on renewed trade tensions before settling back as geopolitical risks eased. Oil rose modestly. The dollar weakened slightly.

As I scanned the morning analyst notes, I was struck by their linguistic acrobatics. Words like "likely," "depends," and "should" did most of the heavy lifting. This is the language of a market caught between conditional futures and presidential mood swings. The commentary is less a forecast than a hedge.

On the macro agenda, the partial shutdown of the US government due to the budget impasse in Congress continues to disrupt the publication of economic data in the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has rescheduled the September Consumer Price Index (CPI). Instead of a release this week, it will be published on Friday, October 24, 2025. It said no other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This week, several central bankers will be taking to the podium, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

In Asia-Pacific, all indices are down this morning amid renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. Hong Kong is down 2.6%, while South Korea and Taiwan are down more than 1%. Australia is down 0.8% and India 0.3%. Japan is closed for a public holiday. European indices are mixed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 0.2%. The VIX index, which measures market tension, has crossed the 20-point mark for the first time since the beginning of August.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,240
  • Gold: $4,080
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.12 (WTI) $59.31
  • United States 10 years: 4.05%
  • BITCOIN: $114,540

In corporate news:

    • Blackstone confirmed interest in a potential takeover of Big Yellow, while also selling UK logistics assets to Tritax Big Box for £1.04 billion and gaining a 9% stake in Tritax as part of the deal.
    • Exxon Mobil CEO warned of a medium-to-long-term tightening in the oil market due to declining unconventional oil and gas investments.
    • SystImmune will receive a $250 million milestone payment from Bristol-Myers Squibb and could earn up to $7.1 billion under their Iza-Bren cancer therapy collaboration.
    • Strava is planning a U.S. IPO to raise capital for potential acquisitions, according to its CEO.
    • Caterpillar announced it will acquire mining software company RPMGlobal, with the deal expected to close in Q1 2026.
    • Regeneron reported that its investigational gene therapy DB-OTO improved hearing in 11 out of 12 children with profound genetic hearing loss in a Phase 1/2 study.
    • London Stock Exchange Group expanded its partnership with Microsoft to integrate financial data into Microsoft 365 Copilot for AI-powered decision-making.
    • Moderna will present promising early data at ESMO for its mRNA-4359 cancer therapy, which is now in Phase 2 trials.
    • Bristol-Myers Squibb will present mRNA-4359 data at ESMO in partnership with Moderna, showing a manageable safety profile in cancer patients.
    • Johnson & Johnson and Legend Biotech's Carvykti cancer therapy received a new FDA label warning for a rare but serious gut inflammation risk.
    • Pharmaceutical companies including AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk have announced direct-to-consumer drug sales and price cuts in the U.S. in response to government pressure.
    • Jefferies stated its exposure to bankrupt auto parts maker First Brands is limited and absorbable, though the incident impacted its market valuation.
    • China's SAMR said its investigation into Qualcomm's acquisition of Autotalks is routine antitrust enforcement, citing anti-competitive concerns despite the deal being below reporting thresholds.
    • Air India has been instructed by India's aviation regulator to inspect the emergency power system on some Boeing 787 jets after an uncommanded deployment incident.
    • China's auto market grew 6.6% in September, with BYD seeing its first monthly sales drop since early 2024, while rivals like Geely and Xpeng posted record sales.
    • Tabby invested in Nvidia HGX systems to power its advanced AI infrastructure.
    • CVS and UnitedHealth scored high in U.S. 2026 quality ratings, qualifying for substantial government bonus payments.

    Analyst Recommendations:

    • AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): KGI Securities Co Ltd upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 150 to USD 260.
    • Apa Corporation: Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and raises the target price from USD 16 to USD 21.
    • Bloom Energy Corporation: Baird maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 76 to USD 94.
    • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 10 to USD 13.
    • Comfort Systems Usa, Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 746 to USD 917.
    • Fiserv, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 192 to USD 149.
    • Mid-America Apartment Community, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 152 to USD 121.
    • Mks Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 120 to USD 151.
    • Robert Half Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 47 to USD 36.
    • Rocket Lab Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 20 to USD 68.
    • Sandisk Corporation: Wells Fargo maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 50 to USD 115.