The deal is meaningful, but it is not clean. It buys 60 days, but does not settle the long-term framework. It keeps ships moving, but it leaves open the question of what happens when the clock runs down. Donald Trump has already warned that attacks could resume if Tehran fails to honor its commitments. Markets like lower oil prices, but they are not mistaking a memorandum for a settled region.

The politics are also messy. Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian digitally signed the memorandum, and critics in Washington quickly argued that Iran had secured the better deal, saying the terms were even more favorable than those of Obama's 2015 agreement, which Trump had harshly criticized. Trump, in his usual diplomatic style, dismissed them as jealous, bad, or stupid. Subtle it was not.

That brings us to the other important story today: the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair did not give Wall Street the gentler turn some had expected. Rates were left unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the message was tougher than the decision. Nearly half of Fed policymakers now expect a rate increase this year, and traders have moved quickly. A hike by October is now fully priced in, while the probability of a September move has jumped sharply.

Warsh's debut was striking because he seemed determined to pull the Fed away from the long, carefully padded language that became familiar under previous chairs. The statement was cut down dramatically. Forward guidance was stripped back. Warsh did not add his own forecast to the dot plot. He also announced a broad policy review covering communications, the balance sheet, data use, productivity, employment, and the inflation framework. If Warsh wants the Fed to be judged by inflation rather than by hints, phrases, and market-friendly hand-holding, then a cleaner message may be the point.

Stocks had reason to rise because the Iran deal pushed oil lower and reduced the immediate fear of an energy shock. But the Fed gave investors a different problem: borrowing costs may not be done rising. The dollar climbed for a second day, reaching near a two-month high against major currencies. Two-year Treasury yields, which are especially sensitive to Fed policy, rose again after a rough session the day before.

Markets are trying to process good news that comes with a caveat. Lower oil prices help the inflation story, but a hawkish Fed is still warning that inflation has not cooled enough. That tension explains why global stocks slipped even as U.S. futures rose before the open, led by gains of 0.5% for the Dow and 0.9% for the S&P 500, with Nasdaq 100 futures also higher. The Gulf deal lowered geopolitical risk, but Warsh raised the policy risk.

Technology shares are, as usual, doing much of the heavy lifting. Nasdaq futures were up sharply, helped by gains in Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Micron, Marvell, and Intel. Intel jumped after Trump said Apple had agreed to work with the company on designing and manufacturing chips in the United States. Asia also reflected the strength in tech. Tokyo and Seoul hit records overnight.

There are other items for investors to watch today. Weekly jobless claims are expected to fall slightly to 225,000 from 229,000, offering another read on whether the labor market is cooling gently or not cooling enough for the Fed's liking. Accenture is under pressure after trimming the top end of its annual revenue forecast, despite posting higher quarterly earnings and revenue.

There is also a more awkward development sitting in the background. According to Bloomberg, the Justice Department is investigating how Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei built a global investment portfolio with exposure to Wall Street banks, including transactions involving JPMorgan and Citigroup. The investigation does not mean charges will follow, and the reported focus is Khamenei rather than the banks. But it is an uncomfortable subplot on a day when Washington is selling a diplomatic opening with Tehran.

Then there is triple witching, the quarterly expiration of stock options, index options, and futures contracts. It can lift trading volume and sharpen volatility, especially when markets are already juggling oil, the Fed, tech, and geopolitics.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 100.784
  • Gold: $4,241
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $77.42 (WTI) $75.28
  • United States 10 years: 4.46%
  • BITCOIN: $63,925

In corporate news:

  • Noam Shazeer, co-lead of Google Gemini, joins OpenAI.
  • Waymo recalls over 3,800 robotaxis due to a software flaw.
  • Apple plans to raise prices as chip shortages bite, according to the Wall Street Journal. It's also planning second-generation iPhone Air for 2027.
  • Microsoft faces a securities fraud class action lawsuit after its stock plummeted over alleged misstatements regarding Copilot and Azure.
  • Broadcom expands debt buyback to $3 billion after strong investor response.
  • JPMorgan has blocked Anthropic AI access for Hong Kong staff, the Financial Times reports.
  • Citigroup pushes its Fed rate cut call to October 2026.
  • Boeing wins an 18 million USD sustainment contract with the US Air Force.
  • Noam Shazeer, co-lead of the Gemini project at Google, is joining OpenAI.
  • Biogen is focusing on immunology with the $1 billion acquisition of RayThera.
  • Activist investor TOMS Capital is pressing Devon Energy to speed up its asset disposals or to sell the company.
  • Roelof Botha has been elected as an independent director to the board of SpaceX.
  • SLB aims to double the turnover and operating profit of its digital businesses by 2030.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb is maintaining its quarterly dividend at $0.63 per share, payable on 3 August.
  • A large-scale hacking campaign has compromised organisations via Fortinet equipment, according to researchers.
  • General Dynamics has secured a $116.6 million contract extension from the US Navy for the MK 54 Lightweight torpedo.
  • KKR is investing $1.4 billion in aircraft leasing to airlines.
  • Nucor forecasts higher-than-expected Q2 earnings, driven by rising prices and volumes.
  • Today's key earnings reports: Accenture, The Kroger

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Albemarle Corporation: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 225.
  • American Express Company: DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 345 to USD 375.
  • Cognex Corporation: Zacks upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 69 to USD 75.
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation: Berenberg downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 81 to USD 59.
  • Factset Research Systems, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgrades to sell from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 291 to USD 215.
  • Intuit Inc.: Stifel downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 375 to USD 275.
  • Jefferies Financial Group Inc.: UBS downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from USD 59 to USD 67.
  • Range Resources Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 45.
  • Verisk Analytics, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrades to neutral from sell with a target price of USD 185.
  • Carmax, Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its underperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 19 to USD 33.
  • Datadog, Inc.: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 225 to USD 275.
  • Hims & Hers Health, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 29 to USD 39.
  • Jabil Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 355 to USD 440.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 260 to USD 385.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Rosenblatt Securities Inc. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 600 to USD 1200.
  • Morningstar, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 265 to USD 210.