Soybeans Lead Broad Decline on Grains Futures Amid Oversupply Fears -- Daily Grain Highlights

By Paulo Trevisani

-- Soybeans for March delivery fell 0.8% to $10.64 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, as the prospect of massive crop in Brazil stoked fears of oversupply.

-- Wheat for March delivery fell 0.7% to $5.38 a bushel.

-- Corn for March delivery fell 0.6% to $4.28 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Excessive Supply: The risk of massive crops overrode fears of supply-chain disruptions and grain futures fell ahead of a cold weekend in the U.S. "Geopolitical risk premium added early in the week is being extracted as focus turns to rising odds of a monster soybean crop in Brazil," AgResource said in a report. It also cited "improvement in Argentina's climate." The firm expects Brazilian soybean export prices to "deflate further in the next 30 days."

Iran Risk: Potential supply-chain disruptions still gave some support to wheat prices Friday morning, as Washington kept a fiery rhetoric against Iran. But the initial rally proved short-lived. The announcement of Kevin Warsh as President Trump's pick to replace Fed Chair Powell didn't do much to change the prospect of gradual interest rate reduction, pushing the dollar higher and taking the ground from under gold and silver.

INSIGHT

Brazilian Monster: Oversupply was the main driver of grain futures, AgResource said in a report. "Soybeans and soymeal face the greatest downside price risk amid a monster Brazilian soybean crop," the firm said. Rainfall was expected to keep crops "well watered" in Brazil. Although dryness was noted in the southern part of the country, "crop stress is limited due to adequate soil moisture." AgResource noted that the soybean growing season in the country will end late next month "and it was largely free of weather threats." Early harvest data show a record-high yield trend, with a crop of more than 184 million metric tons, the firm said.

Unknown Impact: The real damage caused by bitter cold weather on the U.S. winter wheat crop won't be known for a few weeks, but concerns are mounting. StoneX's Arlan Suderman estimates that cold temperatures over areas lacking sufficient snow cover put 15% to 20% of the crop at risk. He said in a report that it could take up to six weeks to see the full scope of the impact. Suderman added that the Black Sea region was also expected to see extremely low temperatures in the coming days. "Most central and northern areas have sufficient snow cover to protect the wheat, but southern areas do not," he said.

AHEAD

-Tyson Foods Inc. will release its first quarter 2026 earnings report at 7:30 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Monday.

-Archer Daniels Midland Co. will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings report before the stock market opens on Tuesday.

-Corteva Inc. will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings report after the stock market closes on Tuesday.

-Bunge Global SA will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings report at 6 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Paulo Trevisani at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-30-26 1500ET