Soybean prices reached their highest level in nearly 17 months on the Chicago Stock Exchange on Thursday, buoyed by anticipation of a key report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The January soybean contract climbed to $11.50 per bushel, before stabilizing at $11.45, while corn, up 6 cents to $4.41, hit a four-month high. Wheat, meanwhile, fell to $5.34, on expectations of abundant global supplies.
Markets are awaiting the USDA's first comprehensive report on global supply and demand since September, with its publication having been delayed by the partial shutdown of the federal government. The reopening of export data this week, including sales from September 25, is adding to the volatility. Traders are anticipating a downward revision in yields: to 184 bushels per acre for corn (down from 186.7 in September) and to 53.1 for soybeans (down from 53.5), according to a Reuters survey.
Chinese demand remains a major factor of uncertainty. Beijing has reportedly committed to purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans for November and December as part of a trade truce agreed upon at the end of October. This possible resumption of purchases is fueling bullish expectations, as several agreements were signed during the shutdown. Analysts believe that Friday's report will finally provide an accurate picture of harvests and trade commitments.
The wheat market is bucking the trend, weakened by an upward revision of harvest forecasts in Argentina. The Rosario Grain Exchange now forecasts record production of 24.5 million tons for the 2025-2026 season, which is putting further pressure on global wheat prices.
