By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for January delivery fell 1%, to $10.94 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, with the news of a $12 billion aid package failing to spur excitement among traders.

--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.2%, to $5.34 1/4 a bushel.

--Corn for March delivery fell 0.2%, to $4.44 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Not Moving the Needle: A $12 billion government aid package looks to offer short-term help for farmers affected by the U.S.-China trade impasse, lifting them over 2025's financial hump of high input costs and low commodity prices. But farmers are "unimpressed," said Peter Meyer of Muddy Boots Ag, as many see this as a band-aid over fundamental structural issues for the U.S. agriculture. "For the most part, farmers are against these payments as they see it as pass through to input suppliers, banks, and the like," Meyer said. "There is plenty of concern that these payments are becoming the new norm and will eventually strike an even stronger blow to the farm economy."

Interested in Inventories: Tuesday's WASDE report from the USDA remains one of the big focuses for grain traders this week. The report is expected to show updated ending stock figures for the 2025/26 marketing year, with analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projecting corn ending stocks up to 2.17 billion bushels, soybean stocks up to 309 million bushels, and wheat stocks down to 893 million bushels. Analysts say that trading may be even more reactive to changes made to export projections.

The Big Kahuna: Many investors speculate that the Fed will pair a rate cut this week with hawkish language about the path ahead, creating pressure for markets Monday. But the Fed probably won't want to completely rule out moving again in January, David Mericle of Goldman Sachs writes. "It is not realistic to expect the FOMC to box itself in too much by signaling a very strong bias toward a pause in January because if the labor market is still actively softening at that point, a cut might be appropriate," Mericle said.


INSIGHT


Domestic Use: The impasse between the U.S. and China looks to be closely watched as 2026 gets underway. But underneath that is another topic that may be just as important, if not more: U.S. biofuels policy, which could spark a much-higher consumption of soybeans to produce renewable fuels like biodiesel. "Increased domestic crush capacity to meet growing soybean oil demand means the U.S. will become a larger soymeal exporter and less reliant on China as a soybean buyer," said ING Economics in a note. The firm maintains that the clear threat to this increased consumption is if the U.S. government decides to pull back on renewable fuels rules next year.

Holding Off: The $12 billion aid package coming from the Trump administration is expected to help crop farmers saddled with losses for their acres in 2025 to get over the financial hump heading toward next spring. That may manifest in a rally in CBOT futures prices, said Joel Karlin of Ocean State Research, but only a short one. "This infusion of cash may make U.S. farmers hold off from marketing until and if better pricing opportunities emerge, but eventually that grain will have to come to market," said Karlin.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Tuesday.

--The CFTC will release its Commitment of Traders report covering the week ended Nov. 4 at 3:30 p.m. ET Tuesday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its Grain Crushings report at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday.


--Matt Grossman contributed to this article.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-08-25 1521ET