At the outset, the managers note that the month was marked by geopolitical developments following President Trump's aggressive statements regarding Greenland and threats of new tariffs against countries seeking to strengthen the area's protection. These comments increased volatility in both equity and bond markets.
However, a shift occurred at the World Economic Forum in Davos, when Trump, after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, withdrew the threats. Markets calmed down relatively quickly, but the dollar continued to weaken. The managers argue that the dollar's decline is not solely due to economic factors but also reflects growing distrust toward the United States.
The Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and the German IFO Index came in somewhat lower than before, indicating that the economy is struggling to gain momentum. Sweden remains at levels that signal growth, while Germany still has a long road to recovery, according to the managers.
In Sweden, the upswing was strong until mid-month, when the Greenland unrest contributed to a pullback. Stock prices did not fully recover from this decline. In the bond market, long-term interest rates were pushed up in both the US and Sweden in connection with the geopolitical tensions.
Furthermore, several major industrial companies and banks have already reported, according to the managers. Industrial results have in many cases exceeded expectations, despite a sluggish economy, tariff headwinds, and a significantly strengthened krona. Demand in the automotive industry is highlighted as still weak, while demand for mining equipment is described as very strong.
Meanwhile, banks are showing a dip in net interest income, but the managers believe the bottom will be reached during the first half of the year, provided the Riksbank does not cut rates further. The stock market is in a seasonally strong period, but historically tends to start showing weakness around the winter break week, the managers write.
Among company reports, the fund's largest holding, Investor, reported stable performance, while bank reports were mixed. Volvo indicated that the truck market would bottom out in 2025 and a turnaround is expected in 2026, with maintained margins and some optimism.
The largest positive contributors included Swedbank, ABB, and Alfa Laval, while Scandic Hotels, Asker Healthcare, and Trelleborg weighed most on performance. At the end of December, equity exposure amounted to 75.3 percent, while 23.2 percent was invested in interest-bearing securities.
The fund's largest equity holding at the turn of the month was Investor, with a portfolio weight of 9.7 percent, followed by Swedbank and Nordea, with weights of 8.4 and 8.2 percent, respectively.
| Sensor Sverige Select, % | January, 2026 |
| Fund MM, change in percent | 1.44 |
| Index MM, change in percent | 1.22 |
