Revenue and operating profit are stable, while its debt, which is still falling significantly, represents only a fraction of the level that a Western or Asian operator would normally bear.
It is true that MTN does not have such comprehensive or deep access to capital markets. Furthermore, major international lenders are wary of the currency and governance risks that are very real for a group that still generates a third of its revenue in Nigeria and a quarter in its domestic South African market.
This structural difficulty has a very direct impact on its accounts. In 2024, unfavorable exchange rate factors cost it over $1bn, while the bill was even higher in 2023. Each time, almost half of its operating profit was wiped out.
MTN is one of the few telecom operators in the world – if not the only one – that is not valued based on its dividend, but rather on its growth prospects on the African continent. These prospects, however, continue to be elusive, as its results have been stagnating for ten years.
This has not prevented the valuation from returning to its highs, with an enterprise value – excluding operating leases – hovering around 25x free cash flow. See MTN Group Limited: Restructuring completed, stability preserved.
The group's two largest shareholders—the South African sovereign wealth fund and JP Morgan, which together controlled a third of the capital at the beginning of the year—have sold shares in recent months.
