On Wall Street, indices are trading mixed following the release of numerous data points this afternoon. Around 5:50 PM, the Dow Jones is up 0.05%.

The U.S. PCE price index, closely monitored by the Fed for its monetary policy, rose by 2.8% year-on-year in January, slowing from 2.9% the previous month. However, the Department of Commerce, which publishes these figures, noted that excluding food and energy, the annual increase in PCE prices actually accelerated slightly, rising from 3% in December to 3.1% in January.

According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by only 0.7% at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, while economists had generally expected a confirmation of the previous estimate of 1.4%. The growth of the American economy thus experienced a significantly sharper slowdown at the end of last year than initially estimated, compared to a 4.4% rate recorded in the third quarter.

Furthermore, the U.S. Department of Labor's JOLTS report showed 6.946 million job openings in January, exceeding the consensus target of 6.760 million. A month earlier, job openings stood at 6.550 million.

Regarding the evolving standoff between the Americans and Iranians, Mojtaba Khamenei spoke in an initial message read on state television. The new Supreme Leader promised to avenge the victims of the war "to the end." Calling for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed and for U.S. bases to be sealed off, the religious leader judged that there is "no other solution than to continue" the war. The Revolutionary Guard subsequently vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Additionally, the U.S. military claims to have struck approximately 6,000 targets since the start of the war against Iran, including more than 90 Iranian vessels.

Oil prices soar

The surge in oil prices is the major consequence of the clashes between Washington and Tehran.

On this point, Fitch Ratings explains that "global economic growth should remain stable this year, provided that the current shock to oil prices is not prolonged." For the rating agency, the global economy has held up well despite a succession of geopolitical shocks and policy changes in the United States. Global growth reached 2.7% last year, a level close to its long-term average. Assuming the recent rise in oil prices is relatively brief, Fitch forecasts only a slight slowdown in 2026 to 2.6%, revised upward from the 2.4% anticipated in its December macroeconomic analysis.

For his part, Olivier Herbout, co-founder of Ramify (a wealth management specialist), indicates that "according to the International Energy Agency, the war in Iran could cause the largest disruption in the history of global oil supply." Tensions in the Middle East are thus bringing inflationary risks back to the forefront, particularly through rising energy prices but also through increased maritime transport costs linked to logistical disruptions and higher insurance premiums.

For the markets, the central question remains the duration of this oil price hike: is it a temporary shock linked to an acute geopolitical episode, or a more lasting increase likely to fuel inflation in the medium term?

"The conflict in the Middle East, and the resulting energy shock, risk driving inflation up significantly on a global scale in the coming months. This is, in any case, the hypothesis that can reasonably be formulated if we refer to previous periods of conflict," says Chris Iggo, Chief Investment Officer of AXA IM Core at BNP Paribas Asset Management. "A rise in bond yields and interest rate volatility generally follows, often resulting in a slowdown in growth. The longer the conflict lasts, the more unfavorable the impact on markets, with widening credit spreads and falling stock valuations," he specifies.

On Wednesday, the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market. This measure aims to address oil market disruptions resulting from the war in the Middle East. Emergency stocks will be released according to a schedule tailored to the national situation of each member country and will be supplemented by additional emergency measures in certain countries.

At the market close, Brent lost 0.16% to 101.59 dollars and WTI gained 0.49% to 96.83 USD.

Vivendi slightly down, Worldline up

On the equity side this Friday, Vivendi lost 0.78%, appearing among the sharpest declines on the SBF 120. While the content production and entertainment group posted a 4.3% increase in revenue for 2025 and returned to profit, the value of its listed investment portfolio shrank from 6.89 billion euros at the end of 2024 to 5.53 billion euros at the end of 2025.

Worldline finished down 4.8%, after having jumped as much as 17% shortly after the opening. The stock had climbed the day after the payment solutions group announced the launch of its capital increase with preferential subscription rights (PSR), open to all its shareholders, for a gross amount of approximately 392 million euros as part of its financial restructuring.

"While the amount is no surprise, the price of the operation is excessively low (0.202 EUR, an 87% discount on the last price), which will lead to massive dilution far exceeding our estimates (2,262 million shares post-operation versus 730 million expected)," warns Invest Securities. Conversely, Alphavalue believes the operation will allow management to focus on the business turnaround and the implementation of the North Star 2030 strategic plan. It still considers Worldline "a risky but attractive restructuring case, whose assets hold substantial hidden value."

In Europe, after jumping nearly 10% yesterday, Zalando shares (+6.95%) posted the strongest gain on the DAX 40 index following the release of annual results that were very well received by analysts. The German footwear and apparel specialist had yesterday morning unveiled fourth-quarter accounts well above expectations. It expects an acceleration in its results in 2026, confirmed its 2028 targets, and launched a 300 million euro share buyback program.

ECB and Fed take center stage

Next week, all eyes will be on the central banks.

The Fed will deliver its monetary policy decision at the end of its two-day meeting on March 18.

"We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged at next week's meeting. The FOMC faces the challenge of updating its economic and monetary outlook amid significant uncertainty, fueled by both the ongoing war in the Gulf and concerns about labor market resilience in the face of artificial intelligence. Given the unpredictable duration of the conflict and its impact on oil prices and inflation, we do not anticipate substantial changes in economic projections," notes Paolo Zanghieri, senior economist at Generali Investments.

On March 19, it will be the ECB's turn to unveil its decision, as well as the Bank of England. "We expect the ECB to maintain its policy rate at 2% at its March 19 meeting and to indicate that it will ignore temporary spikes in energy prices. At the same time, President Lagarde will likely emphasize extreme uncertainty and send a message of vigilance and waiting," commented Martin Wolburg, senior economist at Generali Investments.