Tuesday, December 9, marks the 10th consecutive session in which the CAC40 has traded within a 1.5% range, with intraday variations not exceeding 0.5%.

The CAC40 (-0.69% to 8,052) has remained locked between 8,050 and 8,150 points since November 25.

The reopening of Wall Street is not helping to break the deadlock, with the Nasdaq up 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.25% and the Dow Jones up 0.40% (as the Fed begins its 48-hour FOMC meeting).

The positive point on Tuesday is the sudden rise in bond yields over the last two sessions, which has come to a halt: the yield on T-Bonds has eased by -2 points to 4.153%, and the 30-year yield by -2.8 points to 4.787%. As there is little suspense surrounding tomorrow's announcement of a third rate cut, what will make the difference is the content of the US central bank's latest economic forecasts.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, more than 89% of market participants now expect a further quarter-point cut in the institution's key rates on Wednesday.

"The main issue is what pace of easing will be implemented next year," says Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

"We will have to be patient and probably wait for the appointment of J. Powell's successor, which could happen in the coming weeks, to find out more," adds the analyst.

J. Safra Sarasin says it expects another "precautionary" rate cut tomorrow, but the Swiss private bank's teams also believe that it will become "much more difficult to implement all of the rate cuts currently priced into the market, even with a more accommodative Fed chair."

In this context, market players will be watching closely for any indications provided tomorrow by the Fed chairman in order to refine their bets on the continuation of the Federal Reserve's generous monetary policy next year.

In the meantime, the JOLTS data reinforce the case for lower rates: job openings rose marginally in October, but hiring declined, providing further evidence of the current slowdown in the U.S. labor market.

The number of job openings reached 7.67 million, up from 7.66 million the previous month, according to the latest JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report released Tuesday by the Department of Labor.

Hiring rose to 5.37 million from 5.15 million in September, the report shows.

These statistics, used to measure the strength of demand in the labor market, should be closely monitored to determine employment trends in the absence of official monthly data published by the Department of Labor.

If the bond markets are to be believed, the prospect of two further rate cuts in 2026 seems far from set in stone.

The deterioration is particularly striking in the United States, where Treasury yields have risen sharply recently, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's comments prompting market participants to sell long-term paper.

Japan is seeing long-term rates plateau, but with no improvement in sight (-1.2 points to 1.965% on the 10-year), while in Europe, the German 10-year Bund, the benchmark in the eurozone, rose by ten basis points on Monday to settle above 2.87%, before falling by -1.5 points on Tuesday to 2.852%, with French OATs falling by -2.5 points to 3.566%.

Although the predictive power of yield curves may legitimately be questioned, the appearance of this contradictory signal in the bond market led equity markets to be more indecisive yesterday.

Given that there will not be much news to digest between now and the end of the year following the Fed meeting, some investors may even be tempted to close their accounts early.

The euro is consolidating horizontally at around $1.1635, while oil continues to slide, down 1% after falling 2.5% the previous day (Brent at $61.9, WTI at $58.3, compared with $56 at the end of October and beginning of May)... we are approaching annual lows.