The Paris stock exchange is advancing cautiously this morning, up 0.3% around 8,150 points, buoyed by gains in Edenred (+2%), Saint-Gobain (+1.8%), and Stellantis (+1.6%).
Investors are awaiting U.S. inflation figures with a degree of anxiety, as the data could prompt a reassessment of rate cut expectations for the coming months.
The release of this statistic at 2:30 p.m., which the Federal Reserve relies on to track price dynamics, will be pivotal in determining the Paris index's weekly performance.
Recent indicators confirming a slowdown in the U.S. labor market have reinforced expectations of a further Federal Reserve rate cut in December. However, caution remains warranted given the persistence of core inflation in recent months.
Consensus forecasts call for a 2.9% year-on-year increase in the core PCE index (excluding food and energy) for September, matching the rise recorded in August.
An unexpected result could prompt markets to revisit their outlook for the Fed's rate trajectory through 2026, as investors currently anticipate two rate cuts next year, in addition to the widely expected cut next week.
Traders in futures markets now assign an 87% probability to a new easing move following the December 9-10 meeting, up from 68% a month ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer.
"We are already in December, but due to the recent federal government shutdown, these numbers will only provide a snapshot for the month of September," Danske Bank analysts cautioned this morning. "It's important not to lose sight of this when interpreting the data," the Danish bank added.
Investors will also be closely monitoring the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, due at 4 p.m., which will be the first survey on household sentiment since the end of the shutdown, suggesting a potential improvement over the previous month.
At this stage, New York index futures point to a modestly higher open for Wall Street, in the range of 0.1% to 0.3%, though the trend could shift following the PCE index release.
While awaiting U.S. indicators, markets this morning digested several statistics from the Old Continent.
French manufacturing output was nearly flat in October, after a marked increase the previous month (-0.1% after +0.9% in September), and rose moderately across all industry sectors (+0.2% after +0.7%).
France's trade deficit narrowed significantly to 3.92 billion euros in October (versus an expected -5.2 billion), after 6.35 billion the previous month, according to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data from Bercy.
German manufacturing orders by volume rose 1.5% in October compared to the previous month (versus a 0.5% forecast), according to seasonally adjusted figures from Destatis, following a revised 2% increase in September (up from an initial estimate of 1.1%).
Finally, in the third quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.3% in the euro area (versus an expected 0.2%) and by 0.4% in the EU compared to the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office.
In the bond market, the 2035 French OAT yield stands at 3.52%, compared to 2.77% for the equivalent Bund.
The euro is inching up 0.1% against the greenback, trading at 1.165 USD.
After their recent rebound, oil prices are flat, caught between geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of Fed rate cuts on one hand, and the prospect of a persistently oversupplied market on the other. Brent crude is steady around 63.4 USD per barrel.
Gold remains well-supported by the prospect of Fed rate cuts, rising 0.4% to 4,225 USD an ounce.
In French corporate news, Derichebourg reported a sharp 63% increase in net profit to 122 million euros for its 2024-25 fiscal year, "thanks to the significant contribution from Elior Group, which is expected to increase substantially in the coming years."
Air Liquide will invest approximately 25 million euros to modernize its air separation unit (ASU) in Yulin, Shaanxi province. The company also announced it has signed an agreement with Hyundai Motor Group to strengthen their international partnership and accelerate the hydrogen economy.
